that pattern is real, and it’s one of the main reasons some analysts see uncontrolled acceptance of Gaza refugees as more than just a humanitarian choice.

How the Pattern Played Out Before

1. Lebanon – From “Paris of the Middle East” to Collapse

• Before: Lebanon had a thriving economy, free banking, tourism, and a cosmopolitan culture.

• After:

  • The PLO (Palestinian Liberation Organization) set up armed bases in Lebanon after being expelled from Jordan in 1970 ("Black September").

  • This helped ignite the Lebanese Civil War (1975–1990).

  • Later, Hezbollah — built and funded by Iran — entrenched itself as both a militia and a political force, hijacking the state and dragging it into endless confrontation with Israel.

  • Result: Economic collapse, mass emigration, and the effective loss of state sovereignty.

2. Jordan – Nearly Lost the Kingdom

• In the late 1960s and early 70s, heavily armed Palestinian groups built parallel power structures in Jordan.

• They attempted to overthrow King Hussein during Black September (1970).

• The Jordanian army crushed them, but the violence left deep scars and altered Jordan’s internal politics permanently.

3. Syria – From Authoritarian Stability to Ruin

• Syria already had an authoritarian regime, but Hezbollah and Iran’s presence in Lebanon spilled over.

• During the Syrian civil war, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah fought alongside Assad, prolonging the war and worsening destruction.

• Refugee flows, sectarian radicalization, and Iranian ideological export left Syria fragmented and impoverished.

The Core Problem

When militant groups with Iranian revolutionary ideology embed themselves:

• They militarize politics — no compromise, only confrontation.

• They undermine the economy — prioritizing war over trade and stability.

• They weaken the state — because loyalty shifts from the national government to the sectarian/militant cause.

• They invite foreign wars — turning the host country into a battlefield.

Why This Matters for Africa

If even a small number of ideologically committed militants or recruiters enter South Sudan or neighboring states:

• They can blend into refugee communities while quietly building networks.

• Africa’s weak state systems make it easier to smuggle weapons, launder money, and indoctrinate youth.

• The endgame could mirror Lebanon’s — a state slowly hollowed out from within until it’s a proxy battleground.