The African Union (AU) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) are critical external actors in supporting South Sudan’s stability because the country’s fragility affects not just its citizens but the wider region.

Their role spans mediation, monitoring, capacity-building, and regional integration.

Here’s a detailed breakdown:

1. Mediation and Political Facilitation

• IGAD: Has historically mediated South Sudanese peace processes (e.g., the 2015 and 2018 agreements).

  • Provide neutral ground for negotiations among factions.

  • Help design power-sharing frameworks that are inclusive, transparent, and enforceable.

• AU: Offers continental legitimacy and political pressure.

  • Can signal consequences for non-compliance by leaders.

  • Mobilizes continental diplomatic leverage to prevent spoilers from externalizing the conflict.

Key Objective: Ensure peace agreements are implemented, not just signed, and that power-sharing does not entrench ethnic divisions.

2. Security and Peacekeeping Support

• AU and IGAD forces: Can provide monitoring, protection of civilians, and buffer zones along key conflict-prone areas.

• Support disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) of combatants into civilian life or national security forces.

• Facilitate integration of militias into a unified army, preventing renewed armed conflict.

Example: The UNMISS-AU coordination model helps enforce ceasefires while maintaining neutrality.

3. Early Warning and Conflict Prevention

• Establish monitoring and early-warning systems for flare-ups along ethnic or border lines.

• Share intelligence on militia movements, cross-border incursions, and regional spoilers.

• Coordinate rapid diplomatic or peacekeeping response before violence escalates.

4. Capacity-Building and Institutional Support

• Governance: Technical assistance to build ministries, rule-of-law institutions, and local government structures.

• Justice and accountability: Support transitional justice, human rights monitoring, and anti-corruption initiatives.

• Economic programs: Facilitate trade, infrastructure, and livelihood projects that strengthen state legitimacy and reduce conflict incentives.

Key Insight: Stability is more likely when institutions function, not just when guns are silent.

5. Regional Integration and Economic Leverage

• Promote South Sudan’s inclusion in EAC, AfCFTA, and IGAD trade frameworks, making stability economically beneficial.

• Encourage neighboring countries to avoid unilateral interventions or support for spoilers.

• Facilitate cross-border development projects, which create mutual dependence and reduce incentives for conflict.

6. Accountability and Enforcement

• Threaten or impose sanctions on leaders or groups that violate peace agreements.

• Require reporting and verification of revenue-sharing, disarmament, and transitional governance commitments.

• Encourage civil society participation in monitoring to increase transparency.

7. Key Recommendations for AU & IGAD

Conclusion

The AU and IGAD are essential stabilizers for South Sudan. Their effectiveness depends on:

• Coordinated diplomacy and peacekeeping,

• Strengthening South Sudanese institutions rather than just brokering deals,

• Linking security with economic incentives,

• Acting firmly against spoilers while supporting citizen-focused programs.

Bottom line: Without sustained AU and IGAD engagement, peace deals may remain fragile, and South Sudan could continue to slide into recurring cycles of conflict.