By allowing Chevron to pump Venezuelan oil, the Trump administration is providing unearned breathing room for the Maduro regime.

In February, President Trump tore up the oil concessions given by former president Joe Biden to Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro. This came after Maduro trampled his earlier agreement to hold free and fair elections in 2024, as well as his weaponization of immigration against the United States. 

Now, just five months later, President Trump has allowed Chevron to resume operations in Venezuela, in what appears to be a near replica of the concessions made during the Biden era. Whatever the framing, the Trump administration’s move is a return to the failed thinking of the Biden era. As long as Maduro continues to oppress his people at home and spread chaos at the Southern US border, any steps to legitimize his regime will damage the United States’ long-term interest in South America.

The administration and its supporters are already going to great lengths to separate recent concessions from those granted under Biden. Senior State Department officials insist that the administration “will not allow the Maduro regime to profit from the sale of oil.” Three Republican lawmakers from Florida, who led initial calls for President Trump to revoke licenses in February, have also endorsed the new framework. In a joint statement on X, they wrote, “No matter what the Maduro regime says, they will receive no benefits.”

Yet, no matter how they spin it, the administration’s U-turn is a gift to President Maduro. In addition to the absurd claim that Maduro would agree to a deal with zero benefit to his regime, there is clear historical evidence that even if no cash payments are made directly to the Maduro regime, oil swaps are still a boon. Maduro’s state-controlled oil company, PDVSA, can collect significant sums in operational fees, such as permits before Chevron would be allowed to export from Venezuela. Similarly, paying Maduro in oil directly frees up money that otherwise would have been spent on imports, allowing Maduro to allocate more resources to propping up his regime.

The administration also insists that the recent prisoner deal agreed between the United States and Venezuela has nothing to do with renewed oil licenses. The deal freed 10 US detainees and 80 Venezuelan political prisoners in return for Maduro accepting 252 Venezuelans sent to El Salvador by the Trump administration in March after Caracas initially refused to accept the deportations. Given President Maduro’s record of using illegal immigration as a bargaining chip, it is hard to believe that his regime’s change of heart was not coerced at least in part by the potential benefits of an oil deal.

Given the timing of the prisoner deal, it seems likely that the Trump administration has conceded on Chevron licenses to facilitate further discussions on immigration, a higher priority. The administration was already reportedly split when the decision to revoke Biden-era licenses was made concrete in May. Special Envoy Richard Grenell and Secretary of State Marco Rubio were at odds over cutting a deal with Caracas, as Rubio ultimately felt that any short-term advantage of an energy or migration deal would be undercut by the long-term impact of legitimizing the Maduro regime.

Secretary Rubio was right in May when he dubbed the license concessions granted under Biden as “Pro-Maduro.” It is a shame that the administration is no longer following his approach. Rubio now has the job of navigating an utterly incongruous US-Venezuela policy, whereby he maintains the economic lifelines of an illegitimate regime.

The Trump administration’s U-turn on oil licenses signals to the Maduro regime that immigration is an effective tool to leverage against the United States. The maximum pressure approach adopted during the first Trump administration, which seemed to be returning in February, has given way to this transactional thinking. 

Instead of opening the door for future cooperation, Maduro now knows that the administration can blink in the face of intransigence, especially given the importance of the immigration issue to the Trump administration’s electoral base. The regime’s gesture to free a relatively small number of political prisoners, especially given that up to 850 remain in captivity, is similarly open to future abuse.

U-turning on Chevron oil licenses is a case of myopic short-termism that benefits Caracas much more than Washington. The administration’s disjointed Venezuela policy is now empowering Maduro’s dictatorial regime, which has already cemented ties with the United States’ enemies. In February, the Venezuela-hawks convinced President Trump of a fundamental truth: Maduro is not a good-faith negotiating partner. For the sake of the region’s and the United States’ long-term security and prosperity, the administration must return to this approach.