Internal conflicts, ethnic tensions, and military coups are not isolated issues in the Sahel; they are deeply intertwined factors that profoundly destabilize the region. These elements create a cycle of violence and weak governance, which in turn fuels instability and has significant international consequences.

Internal Conflicts and Ethnic Tensions-

The Sahel is home to numerous ethnic groups, many of which have historically competed for power and resources. These tensions are exacerbated by several factors:

• Competition for Resources: Climate change and desertification are increasing competition for diminishing resources like water and fertile land, particularly between nomadic herders and settled farmers. This resource scarcity fuels intercommunal violence. For example, conflicts between pastoralist and agricultural communities are common and often result in significant civilian deaths and displacement.

• Governmental Failures: Many Sahelian governments, often seen as corrupt and ineffective, fail to provide security, justice, and basic services to marginalized communities. This creates a vacuum that terrorist groups and ethnic militias exploit. These groups often appeal to a sense of historical grievance and offer a form of governance and security that the state has failed to deliver.

• Targeting of Minorities: In some cases, government security forces and allied militias have been accused of targeting minority ethnic groups under the pretense of counter-terrorism operations. These abuses alienate populations, driving them into the arms of extremist groups and perpetuating a cycle of violence and distrust.

Proliferation of Military Coups-

The rise of military coups in countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger is a direct result of these deep-seated internal conflicts and a popular frustration with civilian governments.

• Pretext for Coups: Military leaders often justify their takeovers by citing the civilian government's failure to address insecurity and corruption. Many citizens, disillusioned with elected leaders who cannot protect them from extremist violence, initially support these coups, believing military rule will bring stability.

• Undermining Democracy: These coups dismantle fragile democratic institutions and delay transitions back to civilian rule. The military juntas often suppress political opposition and civil society, leading to a decline in human rights and further isolating their countries. The juntas' focus on maintaining power often comes at the expense of addressing the root causes of instability.

• Erosion of Regional Cooperation: In response to these coups, regional bodies like the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) have imposed sanctions and suspended membership, further isolating the countries involved. This has led to the formation of new alliances, such as the Alliance of Sahel States, which challenge the authority of ECOWAS and Western partners.

International Consequences-

The destabilization of the Sahel has far-reaching international consequences that extend beyond the region.

• Spillover of Instability: The violence and instability are spilling over into neighboring countries, including the coastal states of West Africa. This creates a new front for terrorism and displaces millions of people, straining the resources of already fragile states.

• Changing Geopolitical Alliances: The military juntas in the Sahel have often expelled Western military forces and diplomats, particularly those from France, their former colonial power. This has created a vacuum that Russia is actively filling, primarily through the use of private military companies like the Wagner Group. This shift in alliances complicates international counter-terrorism efforts and allows Russia to expand its influence in Africa.

• Humanitarian Crisis: The combination of conflict, food insecurity, and poor governance has led to a severe humanitarian crisis. Millions of people are internally displaced or have become refugees, and a growing number face acute food insecurity. The ongoing political instability and violence hinder humanitarian access, making it difficult for international organizations to provide aid.