A large buildup of U.S. naval forces in and around the Southern Caribbean has officials in Caracas and experts in the United States asking: is the move aimed at combating drug cartels, as the Trump administration has suggested, or is it for something else entirely?

Seven U.S. warships, along with one nuclear-powered fast attack submarine, are either in the region or are expected to be there soon, bringing along more than 4,500 sailors and marines.

U.S. President Donald Trump has said combating drug cartels is a central goal for his administration and U.S. officials have told Reuters that the military efforts aim to address threats from those cartels.

Stephen Miller, deputy White House chief of staff, said on Friday the military buildup was aimed to "combat and dismantle drug trafficking organizations, criminal cartels and these foreign terrorist organizations in our hemisphere."

But it is unclear exactly how the U.S. military presence would disrupt the drug trade.

Among other things, most of the seaborne drug trade travels to the United States via the Pacific, not the Atlantic, where the U.S. forces are, and much of what arrives via the Caribbean comes on clandestine flights.

Venezuelan officials believe their government might be the real target.

In early August, the United States doubled its reward for information leading to the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to $50 million over allegations of drug trafficking and links to criminal groups.

Maduro, Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and the country's ambassador to the United Nations Samuel Moncada have said the U.S. is threatening the country with the naval deployments, in violation of international treaties.

They have also scoffed at U.S. assertions that the country and its leadership are key to major international drug trafficking.

"Venezuelans know who is behind these military threats by the United States against our country," Venezuela's Defense Minister General Vladimir Padrino said at a civil defense event on Friday, without offering further details. "We are not drug traffickers, we are noble and hard-working people."

'GUNBOAT DIPLOMACY'

While U.S. Coast Guard and Navy ships regularly operate in the Southern Caribbean, the current buildup exceeds the usual deployments in the region.

In the naval force are warships, including USS San Antonio, USS Iwo Jima, and USS Fort Lauderdale. Some can carry aerial assets like helicopters while others can also deploy Tomahawk cruise missiles.

The U.S. military has also been flying P-8 spy planes in the region to gather intelligence, U.S. officials have said. They have been flying over international waters.

The Trump administration has said it can use the military to go after drug cartels and criminal groups and has directed the Pentagon to prepare options.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio travelled to Doral, Florida, on Friday to visit the headquarters of the U.S. military's Southern Command, which oversees operations in the region.

David Smilde, a Venezuela expert at Tulane University, said the military moves appeared to be an effort to pressure the Maduro government.

"I think what they are trying to do is put maximum pressure, real military pressure, on the regime to see if they can get it to break," Smilde said.

"It's gunboat diplomacy. It's old-fashioned tactics,” he added.

While the naval forces are in the Caribbean and the Atlantic, the Pacific Ocean is the bigger route for maritime trafficking of cocaine, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime said in its 2023 Global Report on Cocaine, citing figures from the U.S. DEA that show 74% of cocaine flowing north out of South America is trafficked over the Pacific.

Traffickers use airplanes to send cocaine northward through the Caribbean, the report said, naming Venezuela as a major hub for such departures. Mexico is the main source of fentanyl into the United States, with drug cartels smuggling it over the border.

INTERVENTION AGAINST MADURO?

Moncada said the U.S. buildup was meant to justify "an intervention against a legitimate president."

Asked if the White House was ruling out regime change, a senior administration official said, "Right now they're there to ensure that drug smuggling does not happen."

"The Maduro regime is not the legitimate government of Venezuela. It is a narco-terror cartel. Maduro is not a legitimate president. He is a fugitive head of this drug cartel," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Thursday.

Even so, U.S. officials say that while significant, the forces in the region are still far too small to be able to carry out the type of sustained operation that Caracas has warned against.

In 1989, the United States deployed nearly 28,000 U.S. troops to invade Panama and capture dictator Manuel Noriega.

Christopher Hernandez-Roy, with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said it was possible the buildup could be used for some sort of strike in Venezuela, but could be simply a show of force.

"It's too big to be just about drugs. It's too small to be about an invasion. But it's significant enough that it's there to do something," Hernandez-Roy said.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

US top diplomat Rubio to visit Mexico and Ecuador next week

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to Mexico and Ecuador next week, the State Department said on Thursday, as President Donald Trump's administration seeks to crack down on illegal immigration to the U.S., combat drug cartels and counter Chinese influence in Latin America.

Rubio, the first Latino U.S. secretary of state, visited Central America and the Caribbean in his first overseas trip as Washington's top diplomat earlier this year.

Trump has imposed hardline immigration policies, sought to tackle cartels and launched a global trade war with tariffs that target individual products and countries.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has said the U.S. and Mexico are nearing a security agreement to expand cooperation against cartels. But she has rejected suggestions by the Trump administration that it could carry out unilateral military operations in Mexico.

President Daniel Noboa has sought to combat an upsurge in gang violence in Ecuador and has been a partner for the Trump administration in seeking to reduce illegal immigration.

A senior State Department official told reporters that while Ecuador had made progress in certain aspects on immigration, there were issues to discuss, including how to handle people from third countries who cannot return to their home country.

"We're talking to lots of countries about those kinds of issues, and Ecuador will be one," the official said, but added Washington was "not necessarily" seeking a third country national deal with Ecuador.

The official said countering China's influence in the region was also a priority, including ensuring that China does not use Mexico as a trade backdoor to the United States.

Rubio will meet both presidents and his counterparts on the trip, the official said.

While not strictly Rubio's portfolio, Trump's tariff policies are also likely to come up in his talks.

Mexico in July was able to avoid 30% tariffs on its shipments to the U.S., securing a 90-day pause to work on a trade deal.

But it is still subject to 25% fentanyl tariffs, though goods sent under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada free trade agreement - which are most of them - are exempt.

Ecuador has also been hit with 15% tariffs.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The US brings in a navy fleet to Venezuela's coast — but does the Suns cartel exist?

The US is sending ships into the waters off Venezuela as part of an effort to curb drug trafficking from Latin America.

Three amphibious assault vessels are due to reach the region by next week, according to an American defence official who spoke on the condition of anonymity.

The confirmation of the deployment comes a week after US President Donald Trump confirmed the move, which will see the American military attempt to stop cartels he blames for the flow of fentanyl and other drugs into the US.

One of the cartels Trump thinks is responsible is the Cartel de los Soles (Cartel of the Suns), a group his administration has designated as a terrorist organisation, despite doubts that it even exists.

What is the Cartel of the Suns?

In July, the Trump administration suggested that the Cartel of the Suns was led by the Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and was backed by other “other high-ranking Venezuelan individuals”.

The US government claimed the so-called cartel supports criminal groups such as Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua and Mexico’s Sinaloa Cartel by weaponising drug trafficking against the US.

Both Venezuela and its neighbour Colombia insist that the group has no basis in reality, while Washington’s allies in the region, including Argentina and Paraguay, have fallen behind Trump’s position.

Experts say that there is no evidence of a group of that name with a defined hierarchy, while an anti-drug report from the US State Department in March did not mention it by name.

Insight Crime, a think tank that specialises in corruption in the Americas, said earlier this month that the US’ sanctions against the Cartel of the Suns were misdirected.

“The US government’s new sanctions against Venezuela’s so-called 'Cartel of the Suns' incorrectly portray it as a hierarchical, ideologically driven drug trafficking organisation rather than a profit-based system of generalised corruption involving high-ranking military figures,” it wrote.

The name, which refers to the suns depicted on Venezuelan military uniforms, was invented by the Venezuelan media after two generals were found to have been involved in drug trafficking in the early 1990s, according to the think tank.

US and Venezuela’s tense relationship

The relationship between Washington and Caracas has long been strained, with US officials decrying what they called undemocratic elections last year, which gave Maduro a third presidential term.

The US also strongly condemned the Venezuelan government’s crackdown on protesters after the elections. Several thousand demonstrators were jailed after the disputed vote last July.

The Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, whose ally Edmundo González is recognised by the US as the winner of the 2024 election, has expressed her support for Washington's latest policies regarding Venezuela.

Meanwhile, Maduro and his supporters have stoked fears about a potential US invasion, urging people to enlist in a volunteer militia designed to help the army against external attacks.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz said Friday that Mexico should take a page out of El Salvador's book in cracking down on drug cartels, and take the United States up on an offer to help combat organized crime.

The Republican senator from from Texas, who stopped in Mexico after visiting Panama and El Salvador this week, appeared to imply that the U.S. could take some actions against drug cartels on its own if Mexico declines joint action.

“It would be far preferable for it to be cooperative, and so my hope is the government of Mexico will recognize that defeating these cartels is overwhelmingly in the interest of the citizens of Mexico,” Cruz told a news conference. “My message to the government of Mexico is accept our offer as a friend.”

Cruz did not respond when asked to elaborate on the offer, which he mentioned multiple times during the news conference.

Cruz's suggestion and earlier offers by U.S. President Donald Trump of U.S. military intervention have heightened Mexico's sensitivity over its sovereignty.

Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum flatly rejected Trump's offer earlier this year to send U.S. troops to fight the cartels, which his administration declared as foreign terrorist organizations.

“The United States is not going to come to Mexico with their military,” Sheinbaum said earlier this month. “We cooperate, we collaborate, but there will be no invasion. It’s off the table, absolutely off the table.”

There has been evidence of collaboration. Earlier this month, the Mexican government confirmed that it had requested assistance from a U.S. government drone in an organized crime investigation in central Mexico.

Cruz said he met with Mexico’s Foreign Affairs Secretary Juan Ramón de la Fuente and other officials, speaking largely on security and migration issues.

“During this dialogue, it was emphasized that Mexico's relationship with the U.S.A. is based permanently on the principles of shared responsibility, mutual trust, full respect of our sovereignty and cooperation without subordination,” Mexico's foreign affairs ministry said later on X.

Facing tariff threats by the Trump administration, Sheinbaum has been more aggressive than her predecessor in going after Mexican cartels. This month her administration sent dozens of cartel leaders to the U.S. And Mexico has long worked with the U.S. to slow the flow of migration north, contributing to extremely low numbers of illegal crossings.

Despite that, cartel violence has continued to plague Mexico. Cruz on Friday suggested that Mexico should take a more heavy-handed approach to criminal violence as El Salvador President Nayib Bukele has done.

The Salvadoran populist has suspended key constitutional rights and imprisoned more than 1% of his country's population to beat back the country's gangs.

The approach has fueled accusations that Bukele is violating human rights and putting at risk El Salvador's democracy, but the drop in crime has made the president extremely popular at home and turned him into a sort of folk hero for the American right-wing.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

How the Trump administration can build on what's working in the war on drugs.

The Trump administration reportedly directed the Department of Defense recently to begin to use military force against a slew of drug cartels in Mexico and elsewhere in Latin America. As a number of national security scholars and subject matter experts have argued, further militarization, particularly unilaterally, will not win the war on drugs. The White House should consider staying the course on its current diplomatic efforts while exploring demand-side options for curtailing the fentanyl crisis.

Despite their overheated rhetoric, President Trump and Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum have worked to resume cooperation on combating drug smuggling and cartel violence. The Mexican government has extradited two waves of incarcerated cartel associates to the United States, first in February and then again in August. Additionally, Sheinbaum previously ordered Mexican National Guard troops to the U.S.-Mexico border and is collaborating with the U.S. on drone surveillance. Finally, the U.S. Army Special Forces 7th Group has resumed its train-and-assist mission with the Mexican Marines.

These initiatives, compared with the prospect of unilateral military force, come at considerably less diplomatic cost. If the White House wants to remain proactive on the cartel issue within Latin America, working through the Mexican government, however imperfect a solution, remains the best of many bad options.

Sheinbaum has repeatedly warned that U.S. use of unilateral military force would constitute a red line for the Mexican government. The notion of sovereignty is a particularly sensitive issue in Mexico, given the country’s complex history with its northern neighbor. While skeptics in the U.S. may feel inclined to dismiss such protests, they do so at their peril, for they risk undermining the very bilateral relationship needed to mitigate the cartel issue.

Efforts like those the U.S. military could undertake unilaterally have been tried before. Previous Mexican administrations prosecuted their own full-scale war on drugs, killing or capturing scores of cartel leaders and thousands of the rank and file. Proponents of U.S. unilateral action have failed to articulate how they foresee such efforts leading to strategic success where the Mexican government's efforts have not. Thus, the use of U.S. military action inside Mexico would pose significant diplomatic risk for little strategic gain.

Interdiction efforts, even if tactically successful and bilaterally conducted, need to be assessed soberly, for the history of the war on drugs suggests that supply-side strategies in isolation are ineffective over the long haul. Eradicating sources of illicit narcotics to limit their consumption and overdose mortality has been, at best, a game of proverbial whack-a-mole.

Even for the best-case example cited by supporters of further intervention, that of Colombia, a closer examination reveals less than encouraging results. Despite decades of economic assistance and direct coordination under the auspices of “Plan Colombia,” it failed to stem the flow of cocaine into the United States.

The supply-side dynamic is even more daunting for a synthetic narcotic such as fentanyl. Being lab-made, fentanyl is cheaper to produce, store and ship than traditional agriculturally derived drugs. While attacking the literal roots of poppy, marijuana or coca production were often fleeting endeavors, which incurred significant ecological costs, agricultural eradication of these drugs was nevertheless an option available to policymakers. Such is not the case with fentanyl, as it can be made at varying scales of production, often indoors and in densely populated areas, and therefore free from traditional modes of detection.

Given these differences in production methods, where interdiction could achieve measured success is in areas that are less diplomatically sensitive, such as at the U.S.-Mexico border and at sea. Again, however, the history of the drug war does not present an encouraging picture for interdiction as a panacea.

Given these challenges and the historic difficulties of supply-side interdiction and targeting cartel networks, the White House should explore policy options to reduce demand and further efforts at harm reduction. Those are the most promising paths to save lives in the U.S. On this front, there are early encouraging signs. According to U.S. government statistics, overdose deaths have dropped more than 25% nationwide. The exact causal elements of said reduction are unclear; however, some states and localities report success in harm reduction programs, including the increased availability of the lifesaving medication Narcan. Generational trends are also encouraging, with Gen Z displaying an even greater decrease in opioid-related overdoses.

Whether this decline is attributable to an increase in interdiction or the success of harm reduction, the trend is encouraging, especially given that proponents of military action often argue that all other policy options have been exhausted. Considering these domestic trends, it would be foolish to embark on a unilateral military campaign. If overdose deaths are down and Mexican cooperation is up, the wisest course of action for the Trump administration would be to stay its current course lest it undo the progress it has made.