It is highly unlikely that indigenous defense manufacturing can fully replace foreign imports before the next major conflict.

While India has made significant strides, systemic challenges and technological gaps mean a complete transition to self-reliance is still a long-term goal.

The current situation is one of reduced dependency, not complete self-sufficiency.

Progress: A Record of Success-

The "Make in India" initiative has fundamentally transformed India's defense sector, creating a robust, albeit nascent, domestic industrial base.

• Growing Production and Exports: India's defense production has surged, reaching a record ₹1.27 lakh crore in FY 2023-24. Defense exports have also grown exponentially, expanding over 30 times in a decade, to more than 100 countries.

• Key Indigenous Platforms: India has successfully built its first indigenous aircraft carrier, INS Vikrant, a massive achievement that showcases its shipbuilding prowess. The LCA Tejas fighter jet, BrahMos missile, and the Arjun Main Battle Tank are other examples of successful indigenous projects.

• Reduced Import Dependency: The government has published "Positive Indigenisation Lists" with over 5,500 items that can no longer be imported after a certain date. This has successfully reduced India's import dependency, with around 65% of defense equipment now manufactured domestically, a stark reversal from the 65-70% import dependency of the past.

The Reality: Gaps and Delays-

Despite these successes, India's defense industry is not a well-oiled machine. A number of systemic issues pose a serious risk to its operational readiness.

• Long Delays: Many critical projects are either stalled or years behind schedule. The indigenous Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), a fifth-generation fighter, and the Project 75I program for new submarines have both faced significant delays. These delays create critical gaps in the armed forces' capabilities, as old platforms retire faster than they can be replaced.

• Technological Gaps: India still lacks indigenous capabilities in critical areas like jet engines and advanced avionics. The LCA Tejas, for example, is powered by a US-made engine. This dependence on foreign technology makes the Indian military vulnerable to supply chain disruptions and sanctions in times of conflict.

• Bureaucratic Hurdles: The defense acquisition process is notoriously slow and bureaucratic, which discourages private sector involvement and leads to long procurement timelines. While private companies now contribute around 21% to total defense production, the sector is still heavily dominated by state-owned defense public sector undertakings (DPSUs).

In conclusion, India's push for self-reliance is a necessary long-term strategy, but it is not a quick fix. The slow pace of indigenous projects and the persistent technological gaps mean that for the foreseeable future, India will continue to operate a mixed fleet of foreign and domestically-made platforms.