From melting ice in the Arctic to trade tensions in Asia to volatile energy markets in Europe, Canada stands at a crossroads. For decades, our foreign policy posture has been that of a dependable junior partner: aligning closely with Washington, speaking up for multilateralism when possible, and keeping our global ambitions modest. It has been a safe and comfortable stance.

But the global landscape is shifting rapidly. The Arctic is no longer a frozen frontier but a contested arena where Russia, China, and NATO all seek influence. China has become both a crucial trade partner and a security rival, leaving Canada caught between economic interests and allied obligations. Meanwhile, global energy markets are realigning in response to war, sanctions, and the climate crisis — with Canadian liquefied natural gas (LNG) emerging as a potentially powerful lever.

The question, then, is whether Canada will continue as a quiet junior partner in U.S.-led strategy, or whether we will invest in the tools and vision needed to chart a more independent course. The answer matters not just for foreign policy elites in Ottawa, but for the prosperity, sovereignty, and security of every Canadian.

The Arctic: Canada’s front line

Climate change is transforming the Arctic from an ice-locked wilderness into a new global theatre. Russia is modernizing its northern bases and icebreaker fleet. China has declared itself a “near-Arctic state,” eyeing shipping lanes and resource access. NATO allies, spurred by Finland’s accession and Sweden’s pending membership, are sharpening their focus on the High North.

For Canada, the Arctic is not a distant frontier — it is our backyard, our vulnerable flank, and home to vibrant northern communities and Indigenous nations. Yet our ability to defend and govern this vast region remains limited. Investments in Arctic patrol ships, surveillance satellites, and radar upgrades are steps forward, but they fall far short of the infrastructure and capability required to secure sovereignty across such a massive expanse.

Remaining a junior partner here would mean leaning heavily on the United States and NATO to police Canada’s Arctic approaches. That might be cheaper in the short term, but it risks ceding decision-making power in the very region where our sovereignty is most at stake. A strategy of autonomy would mean sustained investment in Arctic surveillance, infrastructure, and northern community resilience — built in partnership with Indigenous governments. It would also mean Canada leading in Arctic governance, ensuring rules of the road are set with Canadian interests at the table, not dictated from abroad.

China: partner, rival, or both?

Canada’s relationship with China is perhaps our most delicate strategic puzzle. On one hand, China is a key trading partner: Canadian agriculture, natural resources, and education sectors all benefit from access to Chinese markets. On the other hand, security concerns — from cyber-espionage to interference in domestic politics — have hardened Canadian public opinion and strained diplomatic ties.

The United States and other allies have taken increasingly tough stances, from restricting high-tech exports to banning Chinese investment in critical infrastructure. Canada has largely followed suit, aligning its policies with allied expectations. This makes alliance management easier but narrows our diplomatic options and exposes us to potential economic retaliation.

Strategic autonomy does not mean ignoring the security risks posed by Beijing. It means ring-fencing sensitive sectors such as critical minerals, 5G, and defence industries, while keeping space open for selective engagement in trade, climate cooperation, and multilateral diplomacy. It also means diversifying trade ties in Asia — deepening partnerships with Japan, South Korea, India, and ASEAN — so that Canada is not trapped in a binary choice between Washington and Beijing.

Energy: a lever for independence

The war in Ukraine and the weaponization of energy exports by Russia have underscored how deeply global security and energy markets are intertwined. For Europe and parts of Asia, Canadian LNG is suddenly attractive as a stable, democratic alternative. LNG Canada’s first exports, and proposed east coast projects, could open new opportunities.

Here lies a chance for Canada not just to be a commodity supplier, but to wield energy as a strategic tool. Aligning entirely with U.S. or European priorities would make our role dependent on others’ agendas. Pursuing autonomy would mean using LNG exports to diversify markets on our own terms — while channeling revenues into Canada’s clean-energy transition. This approach could reconcile our climate commitments with our economic and geopolitical interests. It would also require genuine partnerships with provinces and Indigenous nations, ensuring that development respects both environmental standards and local sovereignty.

Why autonomy, and why now

Some will argue that Canada’s scale, geography, and budgetary constraints make autonomy unrealistic. It is true that our proximity to the United States makes alignment attractive and often practical. But reliance is not the same as strategy.

If Canada remains a passive junior partner, our foreign policy will continue to be defined by the choices of others. In the Arctic, that means surrendering leadership in our own north. In Asia, it means being boxed into a U.S.-China rivalry not of our making. In energy, it means missing the opportunity to use our resources as leverage for Canada’s transition and influence.

Strategic autonomy does not mean strategic estrangement. Canada does not need to abandon NATO, NAFTA, or the Five Eyes. We can remain a committed ally and partner while building the capacity to make independent decisions where our interests diverge. This is the path pursued by middle powers like France, Australia, and South Korea — allies of the U.S., but not satellites.

What autonomy would look like

Building autonomy will take time and resources, but it is achievable. Key steps include:

1. Arctic resilience: Accelerate investments in northern infrastructure, Arctic-capable defence assets, and surveillance. Put Indigenous nations at the centre of decision-making.

2. Diversified diplomacy: Expand trade and security partnerships in Asia and Europe to reduce dependence on any single partner.

3. Energy leverage: Export LNG selectively to allies while tying revenues to domestic clean-energy innovation and climate adaptation.

4. Industrial sovereignty: Develop capacity in critical supply chains — from rare earth minerals to cybersecurity — so that alliance alignment is a choice, not a necessity.

5. Multilateral leadership: Push for international rules in the Arctic, trade, and cyberspace that reflect Canadian values and priorities.

A call to Canadians

Canada’s history has always been shaped by geography — pressed between the gravitational pull of great powers and the realities of vast northern space. But history also shows that we have choices. We chose to build a welfare state in the shadow of American capitalism. We chose to be a peacekeeping nation even as our allies fought wars. We can choose now to build strategic autonomy that secures our future without surrendering our sovereignty.

The world is entering an era of multipolar competition, climate disruption, and economic volatility. In such a world, being merely a junior partner is not enough. Canada must chart its own path — one that protects our Arctic, manages China with nuance, and uses our energy wealth wisely.

Strategic autonomy is not about turning our back on allies. It is about ensuring that, when Canada speaks, it is with its own voice.