Colombia’s modern history is often told through the lens of cocaine, cartels, and conflict.

From the bloody reign of Pablo Escobar’s Medellín Cartel in the 1980s to decades of guerrilla warfare waged by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the country has long been emblematic of the interplay between organized crime and politics.

Today, Colombia is held up internationally as a success story of peacebuilding following the 2016 peace accord with FARC. Yet beneath the surface of apparent progress lies a much more complicated picture.

Violence persists, drug trafficking remains lucrative, and new actors are stepping into the voids left by the cartels and insurgencies of the past.

So the central question remains: Has Colombia truly escaped its cartel past, or is narco-politics still shaping its domestic and regional trajectory?

The Legacy of the Cartel Era

The shadow of the Medellín and Cali cartels still looms over Colombia’s political imagination. Escobar’s violent defiance of the state in the 1980s—bombings, assassinations, and direct infiltration of politics—shattered the line between crime and governance. At its peak, drug trafficking revenues rivaled those of Colombia’s legal exports, embedding narco-dollars into the economy.

Even after Escobar’s death in 1993 and the dismantling of the Cali Cartel in the mid-1990s, criminal networks did not vanish. Instead, they fragmented. The so-called cartelitos (smaller cartels) and later BACRIM (bandas criminales) emerged, diversifying into extortion, illegal mining, and human trafficking alongside cocaine exports.

In effect, while the state gained the upper hand in dismantling cartel hierarchies, the broader criminal ecosystem metastasized into more diffuse but still deeply entrenched structures. This fragmentation made violence more localized but no less enduring.

The FARC Peace Accord: A Turning Point?

The 2016 peace agreement with FARC was hailed as a historic milestone. Ending more than 50 years of armed conflict, the accord promised demobilization, rural development, transitional justice, and political reintegration for ex-combatants. Then-President Juan Manuel Santos received the Nobel Peace Prize for the deal, symbolizing Colombia’s emergence from its war-torn past.

Yet nearly a decade later, the results are mixed.

• Partial Implementation: While thousands of FARC fighters laid down arms, many of the socioeconomic reforms promised—land redistribution, rural infrastructure, and reintegration programs—have lagged due to underfunding and political opposition.

• Violence Resurgence: Dissident FARC factions, estimated at over 3,000 fighters, rejected the accord and continue to operate in drug-producing regions. Alongside the National Liberation Army (ELN), another Marxist insurgent group, these actors perpetuate conflict.

• Targeted Killings: Hundreds of social leaders, human rights activists, and ex-combatants have been assassinated since 2016, often by successor criminal groups aiming to control territories.

Thus, while the accord reduced nationwide violence, it did not end the cycle of narco-politics. Instead, it reshuffled the players.

Cocaine: Colombia’s Unbroken Thread

The uncomfortable reality is that Colombia remains the world’s largest producer of cocaine. Despite billions in U.S. aid under Plan Colombia and ongoing eradication campaigns, coca cultivation reached record highs in recent years. According to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), coca production surged past 230,000 hectares in 2022, fueling both domestic violence and global narcotics flows.

Why has eradication failed?

1. Economic Incentives: For many rural farmers, coca remains more profitable than legal crops. Alternative development programs often lack infrastructure, markets, or subsidies.

2. Security Vacuums: Where the state is absent, armed groups provide protection, coercion, or incentives for coca cultivation.

3. Global Demand: The steady demand in North America and Europe ensures profitability, no matter how much is eradicated.

The result is a paradox: Colombia’s state-building efforts are undermined by the same global forces that reward illicit economies.

Narco-Politics in the 21st Century

While Colombia is no longer dominated by the singular figure of Escobar, narco-politics endures in subtler forms. Corruption remains pervasive, particularly at the local level.

• Political Financing: Investigations repeatedly reveal drug money infiltrating electoral campaigns, especially in rural areas.

• Criminal Governance: Armed groups act as de facto authorities in certain regions, enforcing “justice,” taxing local economies, and influencing political outcomes.

• Urban Penetration: Gangs in cities like Medellín and Cali still exert control over neighborhoods, maintaining the nexus between drugs, politics, and everyday life.

In this sense, the cartel past has not been escaped—it has been decentralized. Instead of a top-down narco-state, Colombia faces a patchwork of micro-narco-political entities embedded into the fabric of governance.

Regional Ripple Effects

Colombia’s narco-politics cannot be contained within its borders. The cocaine trade is inherently transnational, and Colombia’s neighbors are deeply entangled.

• Venezuela: The porous Colombia-Venezuela border is a haven for armed groups and smugglers. Accusations of Venezuelan military complicity in drug trafficking have further poisoned bilateral relations.

• Mexico: Mexican cartels, particularly the Sinaloa and Jalisco New Generation Cartel, dominate global cocaine distribution. Colombian groups now act more as suppliers than distributors, shifting the balance of criminal power.

• Central America & the Caribbean: These regions serve as transit hubs, fueling corruption, violence, and instability.

Thus, Colombia’s domestic struggles directly shape the geopolitics of the Americas, with narco-politics acting as a destabilizing force across the hemisphere.

The U.S. Factor: Ally or Enabler?

No discussion of Colombia’s narco-politics is complete without examining the role of the United States. For decades, Washington has been Colombia’s chief partner, providing billions in military and economic aid. Plan Colombia (2000–2015) is often cited as a success, credited with weakening insurgents and bolstering the state.

Yet critics argue U.S. policy is part of the problem:

• Over-Militarization: Heavy focus on military aid overshadowed social and economic reforms that might have addressed root causes of the drug trade.

• Supply-Side Myopia: By concentrating on eradication and interdiction, Washington ignored the demand driving the cocaine economy.

• Dependency: Colombia’s reliance on U.S. aid reduces policy autonomy and reinforces a securitized lens for drug policy.

The U.S. continues to view Colombia as a frontline state in its broader war on drugs, but this framing perpetuates a cycle of militarization without addressing structural inequalities.

A Future Beyond Narco-Politics?

The Colombian peace puzzle is therefore less about whether the country has escaped its cartel past and more about how it navigates its persistent entanglement with narco-politics. Several pathways forward are worth considering:

1. Holistic Rural Development: Lasting peace depends on providing rural communities with viable alternatives to coca cultivation—roads, schools, healthcare, and markets.

2. Political Reform and Anti-Corruption: Strengthening democratic institutions requires breaking the link between illicit money and political power. Transparency, campaign finance reform, and judicial independence are essential.

3. Regional Cooperation: Colombia cannot tackle narco-politics alone. Coordinated policies with Mexico, Venezuela, Central America, and the Caribbean are necessary to disrupt transnational networks.

4. Drug Policy Innovation: Growing calls for decriminalization or regulation of cocaine in consumer countries could alter the dynamics of the trade, though such policies remain politically contentious.

5. Peacebuilding 2.0: Extending the peace process to include the ELN and ensuring full implementation of the FARC accord would help reduce armed group influence.

Conclusion: A Puzzle with No Easy Solution

Colombia’s transformation since the dark days of Escobar is undeniable. Major cities have revitalized, foreign investment has increased, and democratic institutions are stronger than in the past. Yet the persistence of narco-politics suggests the country has not fully escaped its cartel legacy. Instead, the drug trade continues to shape power relations, governance, and violence, albeit in more diffuse and complex ways.

The Colombian peace puzzle is thus ongoing. It is not a binary question of success or failure but a dynamic struggle between state-building and criminal resilience. Whether Colombia can finally break free will depend not only on domestic reform but also on the willingness of the international community—especially the United States—to rethink a drug war that has, for decades, sustained the very dynamics it sought to destroy.