The new tanks are a major upgrade from what was there before. But for the sort of war that Taiwan faces within the next few years, they are largely useless.

As so much of the world’s attention shifts between the Ukraine War, the conflicts in the Middle East, and the ongoing global trade war, relatively few people are paying attention to what is transpiring in the Indo-Pacific between the People’s Republic of China and Taiwan. 

Of course, many are dimly aware that China is preparing to take drastic military action against the democratic island just 100 miles away from China’s mainland. Fewer understand just how dire the straits are. The Taiwanese, like so many American allies, are woefully unprepared for the big fight that is coming their way.

To better prepare for the coming war with China, Taipei has been purchasing a panoply of weapons from the United States and other Western states—everything from warplanes to missiles to M1A2T Abrams Main Battle Tanks (MBTs). They are now preparing to receive around 80 of these tanks in Taipei. But how much will they really help?

American Tanks Won’t Save Taiwan

The fact is that the M1A2T Abrams tanks—impressive though they are—will not actually deter a Chinese invasion. Their presence might even trigger an attack, though this is not likely. A more pressing concern is that the purchase suggests the Taiwanese still do not understand how they will have to fight to have a chance at defeating any Chinese invasion of their island. 

What’s needed in Taiwan is for the island to prepare to wage a long-term, national insurgency against any possible Chinese invader. Instead, they’re trying to make the Taiwanese Armed Forces into a miniature clone of the United States Army. It won’t work. Taiwan lacks the resources—and even if it had them, China has spent many years preparing to win a high-intensity, short-duration war. By giving them such a war, Taipei is playing into Beijing’s hands.

Taiwan, which had a defense budget of roughly $20 billion in 2024, has prioritized modernizing its military to deter a potential Chinese invasion, particularly an amphibious assault. The M1A2T Abrams MBTs are considered a critical component of this strategy. In fact, they are little more than giant targets for what will be overwhelming numbers of Chinese invaders.

Taipei wants their new Abrams tanks to replace the island’s aging fleet of M60A3 and CM11 tanks, which have been in service for over 30 years and are ill-prepared to counter modern anti-armor threats from the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA). But this doesn’t pass the smell test. After all, Russia has effectively upgraded its decades old Soviet era T-72 and T-90 MBTs to survive—and thrive—on the battlefield in Ukraine. Ukraine has likewise had great success using upgraded Soviet T-62 and T-80 MBTs in modern combat against the Russians, compared with a weaker showing from its NATO-provided MBTs. Why couldn’t the industrious Taiwanese simply upgrade their existing fleet of older tanks—providing a similar capability at a far lower cost? 

What Will Taiwan Use the Tanks For?

Taiwan intends to strategically position the tanks near critical landing zones along Taiwan’s 14 viable invasion beaches, where they can leverage their survivability and lethality to disrupt Chinese amphibious operations. Additionally, Taiwan’s new Abrams MBTs can engage targets from elevated positions and operate in ambush roles along highways. 

Beyond their battlefield role, the M1A2T Abrams MBT serves a symbolic and diplomatic purpose. The delivery underscores America’s commitment to Taiwan’s security (under the Taiwan Relations Act), and it reinforces the US-Taiwan defense partnership amid objections to such arms sales. The tanks also facilitate interoperability with US forces, a key factor in joint exercises and potential coalition operations, aligning with Taiwan’s shift toward network-centric warfare that emphasizes real-time data sharing.

The M1A2T Abrams is a customized version of the M1A2 SEPv2, tailored to meet Taiwan’s operational needs. It is equipped with a 120mm M256 smoothbore cannon capable of penetrating 850mm of armor, significantly outperforming Taiwan’s older 105mm cannon-equipped.

Taiwan’s new Abrams tanks feature advanced multiple control systems, including a “hunter-killer” capability that allows them to track and engage multiple targets at once, enhancing their effectiveness and dynamic roles in combat. The Blue Force Tracking system further improves situational awareness and battlefield coordination, making the M1A2 a valuable asset in Taiwan’s integrated defense strategy. 

All this is excellent. It is a major upgrade from what was there before. But for the sort of war that Taiwan faces within the next few years, it is largely useless. Sure, these systems might be used to slow down part of a Chinese invasion force of Taiwan—but they are also going to be big, beautiful targets for Chinese bombardment. These systems will initially be helpful for resisting Chinese invaders, but they will not last long—and they will not be enough to defeat the invasion on their own.

Taiwan Must Embrace an Insurgency Strategy

Taiwan’s path forward is not in waging a protracted conventional war against China. It is in the threat of waging the mother of all insurgencies—forcing China to devote a massive effort to subjugating the island over decades, instead of bringing its resources to bear against the West. In so doing, Taiwan’s leaders could make him think twice about such an invasion. But what would Taipei need to prepare for this? Not tanks, F-16s, and warships—but rather lots of people and a seemingly endless cache of small arms dispersed throughout the country.

Unfortunately, Taiwan’s leaders have not adopted this approach—and they’re running out of time to change direction.