It is highly unlikely the Indian Air Force (IAF) can maintain air superiority in a full-scale war with its current fighter squadron strength.

The IAF's strength, which is well below its sanctioned number of 42 squadrons, poses a significant vulnerability, particularly in a two-front conflict scenario with China and Pakistan.

While India's modernization efforts and "force multipliers" can help, they are not a substitute for the raw numbers required to dominate a modern battlespace.

The Squadron Shortfall

The IAF's sanctioned strength of 42 fighter squadrons is considered the minimum required to adequately deter and defend against a collusive threat from China and Pakistan. However, the actual number of operational squadrons has been declining. With the phasing out of older aircraft like the MiG-21s, the IAF's strength has dipped to as low as 29 squadrons. This creates a critical gap of over 200 combat aircraft.

• Pacing Threat: China's People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) fields over 50 fighter squadrons, including advanced fifth-generation stealth jets like the J-20. Pakistan's Air Force (PAF) has approximately 20 squadrons, which are being bolstered by Chinese-origin fighters. This leaves India at a significant numerical disadvantage.

• Aging Fleet: The IAF is also grappling with an aging fleet. Legacy aircraft like the Jaguars, MiG-29s, and Mirage-2000s are nearing the end of their service lives and are scheduled for retirement by 2035. This retirement schedule, coupled with delays in new inductions, exacerbates the squadron shortfall.

Modernization and "Force Multipliers"

In an attempt to mitigate the squadron deficit, the IAF is focusing on modernization and force multipliers, which are assets that enhance the effectiveness of the existing fleet.

• Rafale Jets: The induction of 36 Rafale fighter jets has significantly bolstered the IAF's capabilities. These 4.5-generation aircraft, equipped with advanced weapons like the Meteor beyond visual range missile, provide a significant qualitative edge. India is now pursuing a quick deal for additional Rafales.

• Indigenous Efforts: India's indigenous programs, such as the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas, and the planned Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), are crucial for the long term. However, these programs have been plagued by production delays and are not expected to bridge the current gap in the near future.

• AWACS and Tankers: The IAF is also investing in force multipliers like Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) and aerial refueling tankers. These assets allow the existing fleet to operate with greater situational awareness and extended range, partially offsetting the numerical disadvantage.

Conclusion

While India is making strategic efforts to modernize its air force, the squadron shortfall remains a major vulnerability. In a full-scale war, a depleted fleet would be stretched thin across two fronts, limiting the IAF's ability to maintain a sustained presence and counter the sheer numbers of its adversaries. While force multipliers and technologically superior jets can help in localized engagements, they cannot fully compensate for a lack of critical mass. The delays in indigenous production and foreign acquisitions mean that the IAF will continue to face this critical challenge for the foreseeable future.