Delays in India's indigenous fighter jet programs are significantly weakening its long-term air defense.

The slow pace of these projects has created a critical shortfall in the number of fighter squadrons, leaving the Indian Air Force (IAF) with a major capability gap against its adversaries.

The Growing Fighter Squadron Deficit.

The IAF's sanctioned strength is 42 fighter squadrons, which is considered the minimum necessary to effectively manage a two-front threat from China and Pakistan. However, the actual number of operational squadrons has fallen to around 31 as of early 2025 and is projected to drop even lower to 29 by October 2025. This shortfall is largely due to the retirement of aging fleets, primarily the MiG-21s, without a sufficient number of new aircraft to replace them. The slow induction of indigenous jets like the Tejas is a key factor behind this growing deficit.

Delays in Key Programs

India's primary indigenous fighter jet programs, the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas and the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), have both faced significant delays.

• LCA Tejas: Originally conceived to replace the MiG-21s, the Tejas program has been plagued by production delays at Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). While the IAF has placed orders for the Tejas Mark 1A, the delivery schedule has been slow. HAL aims to ramp up production, but the process has been hindered by supply chain issues, including the timely delivery of engines from General Electric (GE) in the U.S.

• AMCA: The AMCA is India's ambitious project to build a fifth-generation stealth fighter jet. While the project was officially sanctioned in 2024, its development is still in the early stages. The first prototype is not expected to roll out until late 2026 or early 2027, with induction into the IAF projected for around 2034. These long timelines mean the AMCA will not address the immediate squadron deficit, leaving the IAF to rely on stop-gap measures and foreign acquisitions for the foreseeable future.

Strategic Impact-

The delays in indigenous programs have a profound strategic impact, leaving India vulnerable in several ways:

• Numerical Disadvantage: The squadron shortfall puts the IAF at a significant numerical disadvantage against both China's People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and the Pakistan Air Force (PAF), which are both actively modernizing and expanding their fleets.

• Continued Foreign Dependency: The inability to produce a sufficient number of indigenous jets has forced India to rely on expensive and time-consuming foreign acquisitions, such as the Rafale jets. This dependence on foreign suppliers for critical military hardware creates vulnerabilities in supply chains and can be affected by geopolitical tensions.

• Aging Fleet: The delays have forced the IAF to continue operating aging aircraft fleets, such as the Jaguars and MiG-29s, for longer than their planned service lives. This not only increases maintenance costs but also compromises operational readiness and pilot safety.