The geopolitical landscape of the Caribbean Basin, shaped by the influence of external powers and the challenges of climate change, has a direct and significant impact on the stability of South American nations.

The Caribbean serves as a strategic maritime corridor and a zone where great-power competition can manifest, while climate-related events in the region can have a cascading effect on South America's economic and social stability.

Influence of External Powers

The growing presence of external powers, particularly China and Russia, in the Caribbean Basin directly challenges the traditional geopolitical influence of the United States and complicates the political landscape for South American nations.

• China's Economic and Diplomatic Footprint: China has become a major player through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), offering loans for infrastructure projects, such as ports and bridges, in exchange for economic access and diplomatic support. This financial leverage can create a new form of dependence, which can be particularly concerning for South American countries that are already struggling with debt. For example, some countries have been pushed into what critics call "debt traps," which can force them to cede control over strategic assets. China also uses its economic clout to influence diplomatic alignment, particularly on issues related to Taiwan.

• Russia's Military and Political Influence: Russia's engagement in the Caribbean is more focused on military and political cooperation, primarily with countries like Venezuela and Cuba. Russia provides military equipment and training, which helps sustain anti-American regimes and creates a security challenge for the entire Western Hemisphere. This a direct threat to U.S. interests and forces Washington to divert resources and attention to the region.

• Impact on South American Stability: The competition between these powers and the U.S. can destabilize the region by turning it into a proxy battleground. The Caribbean Basin serves as a key transit point for illicit activities, including drug trafficking from South America to North America, and external powers' influence can either disrupt or facilitate these criminal networks. This creates a security risk for South American nations like Colombia and Venezuela, whose internal conflicts and criminal organizations often operate across these porous borders.

Climate Change Challenges and Regional Vulnerabilities

The Caribbean is one of the world's most vulnerable regions to climate change. Its small island nations are disproportionately affected by rising sea levels, more frequent and intense hurricanes, and coastal erosion. These challenges have direct consequences for South America.

• Migration and Refugee Crises: Climate-related disasters, such as devastating hurricanes, can displace large populations, leading to humanitarian and migration crises. South American countries, particularly those with existing political and economic instability, may be forced to absorb these climate refugees, straining their social services and resources.

• Economic Disruptions: The economies of the Caribbean are highly dependent on tourism and agriculture. Climate change-related damage to these sectors can lead to economic collapse in some nations, which in turn can disrupt regional trade and create a ripple effect on the economic stability of neighboring South American countries.

• Exacerbating Internal Instability: Climate change-related events can act as a "threat multiplier" for South American nations, exacerbating existing vulnerabilities. For example, a severe drought in a country like Colombia could reduce agricultural output, which, when coupled with a humanitarian crisis from a neighboring Caribbean country, could heighten food insecurity and lead to internal political and social unrest.

By John Uju-Ikeji