China’s carriers are the most visible proof of ambition, but whether they translate into Pacific “dominance” is a different story.

Here’s a balanced breakdown:

1. The Rise of the PLA Navy (PLAN)

• Fleet size: By sheer numbers, the PLAN is now the world’s largest navy, with over 370 ships.

• Blue-water push: Three aircraft carriers (two operational, one fitting out) symbolize China’s desire to move beyond coastal defense into global power projection.

• Supporting arsenal: New Type 055 destroyers, submarines, long-range strike missiles, and surveillance networks create an increasingly lethal maritime environment.

2. The Symbolism of Carriers

• Prestige factor: Carriers are a hallmark of “great power” status. They send a political message to neighbors and rivals that China intends to play in the same league as the U.S.

• Psychological leverage: Sailing carriers through the Taiwan Strait or into the South China Sea signals strength and confidence.

• Soft power projection: For humanitarian assistance, disaster relief, or overseas influence, carriers also enhance diplomatic weight.

3. The Strategic Reality

• Operational gaps: Unlike U.S. carriers, Chinese carriers lack catapults on most decks (until Fujian fully enters service), limiting the range and payload of their aircraft.

• Carrier aviation in infancy: China is still building pilot experience and deck-handling proficiency. Carrier strike group integration is years—possibly decades—behind U.S. Navy standards.

• Vulnerability in wartime: Against a peer, carriers are large, high-value targets. U.S. and allied submarines, long-range missiles, and airpower would make Chinese carriers hard to keep afloat in a high-intensity conflict.

• Sustainment limits: The PLAN has limited experience in maintaining carrier groups on extended deployments far from home bases.

4. Beyond Carriers: The Real Pacific Contest

• Missiles, not carriers, are China’s edge. The PLA Rocket Force’s DF-21D and DF-26 “carrier-killer” missiles are more central to denying U.S. access than carriers are to projecting Chinese power.

• Submarines and A2/AD systems also weigh heavily—these may matter more than carriers in any Taiwan or South China Sea fight.

• Logistics & bases: Without a network of global bases (beyond Djibouti), China cannot yet sustain the kind of carrier-based Pacific dominance the U.S. has maintained for decades.

China’s navy is growing into a formidable regional force, but its carriers are more political symbols than decisive wartime tools—at least for now. They demonstrate ambition and prestige, but in a shooting war, China would likely rely far more on missiles, submarines, and land-based airpower than on carriers to contest Pacific control.

By John Uju-Ikeji