China's armed forces, the People's Liberation Army (PLA), have undergone a remarkable transformation in recent decades.

While their growing technological capabilities and global presence appear to match their expanding ambitions, a closer look reveals a significant and fundamental vulnerability: a profound lack of combat experience.

The "Peace Disease" and Lack of Battle-Hardening

The PLA has not engaged in a major, large-scale conflict since the Sino-Vietnamese War in 1979. This "peace disease," as acknowledged by some Chinese military commentators, means the vast majority of its personnel, from enlisted soldiers to senior officers, have no firsthand combat experience.

This inexperience is a critical unknown. No amount of training, no matter how realistic, can truly replicate the immense psychological and logistical stress of a sustained, high-intensity war. The ability to make rapid decisions under fire, adapt to unforeseen circumstances, and manage the chaos of a battlefield is a muscle that can only be developed in combat. The PLA's proficiency in these areas is entirely unproven.

The Façade vs. Reality

While the PLA has moved beyond a "façade" of military might, it has not yet demonstrated that it can effectively integrate its new capabilities in a real war.

What the PLA can do:

• Anti-Access/Area-Denial (A2/AD): China has developed a formidable arsenal of long-range missiles and advanced aircraft designed to deter or deny an adversary's ability to operate near its coastline, particularly in a conflict over Taiwan.

• Joint Operations: The PLA has restructured its command to facilitate joint operations between its different services—the army, navy, air force, and rocket force. Its military exercises, particularly those around Taiwan, demonstrate an increasing ability to coordinate these forces.

• Technological Sophistication: China is rapidly closing the technological gap with the United States and other Western militaries. It fields advanced platforms like the J-20 stealth fighter, modern aircraft carriers, and a wide array of drones and cyber warfare capabilities.

Where the PLA is unproven:

• Logistics: The ability to sustain a prolonged conflict over a significant distance is a massive logistical challenge. While China has a strong domestic supply chain, its capacity to transport and secure the enormous quantities of fuel, ammunition, and other supplies needed for a large-scale amphibious assault is entirely untested.

• Command and Control: The PLA's highly centralized, party-controlled command structure may be a liability in a fast-paced conflict. In modern warfare, decentralized decision-making by lower-level commanders is crucial, but this can be hindered by a system that prioritizes political loyalty and top-down control.

• Interoperability: While the PLA conducts joint exercises, the effectiveness of true "jointness" in a real combat scenario remains to be seen. A lack of interoperability between different service branches could lead to a breakdown in communication and coordination at the most critical moments.

In conclusion, while China's military modernization has given it the tools to act on its global ambitions, it lacks the battle-tested experience to guarantee success in a prolonged, high-intensity conflict. Its impressive technological arsenal and growing global presence are a testament to its aspirations, but the true combat readiness of its forces remains a significant and open question.