Logistics and maintenance issues could very likely cripple China's air force in a sustained campaign.

While the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) has made impressive technological strides, its ability to sustain high-tempo combat operations for an extended period is a significant and unproven vulnerability.

The Shift from Quantity to Quality

Historically, the PLAAF was a large, but technologically backward, force with limited logistics and maintenance capabilities. While it has invested heavily in modernizing its aircraft, it is now confronting the far more complex challenge of maintaining a high-tech fleet. Modern aircraft like the J-20 stealth fighter require a constant flow of specialized parts, extensive ground crews, and complex maintenance schedules that are far more demanding than the older, simpler aircraft the PLAAF is used to.

• Reliance on Foreign Technology: While China is making progress with indigenous engines like the WS-10 and WS-15, its military has historically relied on foreign technology, particularly from Russia. A sustained conflict would likely lead to sanctions and cut off the supply of critical spare parts, creating a major supply chain vulnerability.

• Centralized, Untested Logistics: The PLA has a complex, top-down logistics system that has never been tested in a sustained, high-intensity conflict. Its ability to quickly repair and return aircraft to service—a key metric known as aircraft readiness rates—is largely unknown and a major source of concern for military analysts.

The Human Capital Gap

Even with the best equipment, a military is only as good as its people. China's air force faces a significant gap in human capital when it comes to maintenance and logistics.

• Lack of Combat Experience: The PLAAF has not been involved in a major conflict in decades. Its maintenance crews and logistics personnel, much like its pilots, have no firsthand experience with the immense stress, chaos, and accelerated pace of a real war. This includes repairing battle-damaged aircraft, managing supply shortages under fire, and maintaining operational tempo in a contested environment.

• Recruitment and Training: While the PLA is working to professionalize its technical corps, its training standards and institutional culture are still evolving. The maintenance of advanced, fourth- and fifth-generation aircraft requires a deep bench of highly skilled, specialized technicians, a resource that is difficult to build quickly.

In a prolonged conflict, a high-tech air force that cannot be repaired and refueled is just a collection of expensive targets. For a force operating far from its home bases, especially in a contested environment, the ability to sustain operations is the single most important factor for success. This remains one of the greatest uncertainties for China's air force.