On September 9, Israel launched air strikes on Qatar, targeting senior leaders of Hamas, who were in the capital Doha for peace negotiations. With these air strikes, Israel has now targeted six Middle Eastern countries in its two-year-old war on Hamas: Palestine (Gaza), Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iran, and now Qatar.
Notably, just days earlier, the Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Eyal Zamir, had vowed to target Hamas’ leaders based abroad.
“Most of Hamas’s leadership is abroad, and we will reach them as well,” Zamir said on August 31.
Qatar has been the home of exiled leaders of Hamas, and has also served as the mediator in talks between the Palestinian group and Israel for years, long before the October 2023 Hamas terror attacks in Israel.
Incidentally, Qatar is a treaty ally of the US. Specifically, Qatar is designated as a Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA) of the US, a status formalized in March 2022 by former US President Joe Biden.
Furthermore, Qatar hosts the largest military base for the US forces in the Middle East, the Al Udeid Air Base, which hosts over 10,000 US soldiers. Also, Qatar has bought billions of dollars’ worth of defense systems from the United States and recently gifted a luxury Boeing jet to President Trump.
None of this was a deterrent for Israel. The message from Israel could not have been clearer: Tel Aviv will go after Hamas leaders wherever they are, even if they happen to be in a US-allied country.
The audacious attack has now raised the possibility of an imminent Israeli attack on the only country that can challenge Israel’s plans in the region: Turkey.
Notabaly, Turkey not only provides economic, diplomatic, operational, and ideological support to Hamas, and has been hosting senior Hamas figures for years, but Ankara and Tel Aviv had been steadily inching towards a direct military conflict for at least two decades now.
This, notwithstanding the fact that Turkey was one of the first Muslim-majority country in the world to recognize Israel, has been a NATO member for seven decades, has a formidable air force and a burgeoning defense industry, and a regional superpower.
However, relations between Tel Aviv and Ankara had been on a downward spiral since Erdogan’s ascendancy to power in Turkey.
Israel-Turkey: From Friends To Foe
Incidentally, Turkey was the first Muslim country to recognize the State of Israel in 1949.
Successive Turkish governments maintained strong ties with Israel, in part due to Turkey’s sizeable Jewish minority. Israeli-Turkish ties were based on security and defense cooperation.
In 1996 and 1998, Turkey awarded Israel contracts to upgrade the Turkey’s fleet of fighter jets. Ankara also awarded Israel a US$700 million contract in 2002 to upgrade Turkish tanks.
The two countries conducted frequent military exercises together and shared intelligence with one another until the early 2000s.
However, things began to change once Erdogan rose to power in Turkey.
At the 2009 World Economic Forum in Davos, then-Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan lashed out at Israeli President Shimon Peres over the 2008-2009 war with Hamas that began with heavy rocket fire from the Gaza Strip into Israel. Erdogan accused Israel of killing Palestinian babies before storming off the stage.
However, one of the most serious incident between Israel and Turkey happened in 2010, when a flotilla of ships, encouraged by the government of Turkey, attempted to breach Israel’s naval blockade of Gaza. When the ships refused to halt despite warnings, the Israeli forces fired, resulting in the death of 10 Turkish activists.
This incident, known as Mavi Marmara incident, precipitated a severe diplomatic crisis, with Turkey demanding reparations and issuing strong condemnations, fundamentally altering the trajectory of Turkish-Israeli relations.
Protesters hold signs depicting the faces of Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Gideon Saar during a demonstration organised by the families of Israelis held hostage by Palestinian militants in the Gaza Strip, calling for their release and for a ceasefire in the war in Gaza, in central Jerusalem on September 3, 2025. (Photo by Menahem Kahana / AFP)
Israel-Turkey Relations Since October Attacks
Unlike Israel, the US, and the EU, Turkey has never designated Hamas as a terrorist organization. Erdogan’s ideological alignment with the Muslim Brotherhood has translated into diplomatic recognition of Hamas as a legitimate Palestinian political actor.
On October 25, 2023, barely two weeks after the deadly Hamas attack on Israel, Erdogan said in Turkish parliament that Ankara does not consider Hamas as a terrorist organisation, but a liberation group, which was waging a battle to protect their lands and people.
“Hamas is not a terrorist organisation, it is a liberation group, ‘mujahideen’ waging a battle to protect its lands and people,” Erdogan said.
Meanwhile, Erdogan strongly condemned Israeli actions in Gaza.
By December 2023, both Israel and Turkey had recalled their ambassdors from the other country.
Furthermore, on 7 August 2024, Turkey filed its official request to join the case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), accusing Israel of state-led genocide in Gaza.
Turkey has also suspended all bi-lateral trade with Israel. Ankara has also refused air space to official Israeli delegations even for peace talks.
Turkish Support To Hamas Since Oct 2023 Attack
The Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center (ITIC), an Israel-based think-tank with close links to Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), has meticulously catalogued the substantial financial and operational support Turkey has provided to Hamas.
Turkey has served as a safe haven for Hamas leadership at least since 2011.
In 2015, Jihad Yaghmour, a Hamas operative who played a role in the abduction of IDF soldier Nahshon Waxman, became Hamas’s representative to the Turkish government. According to ITIC, Yaghmour “liaises between Hamas and the Turkish government and the Turkish National Intelligence Organization (MIT).”
In July 2023, Erdogan hosted Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh. Ankara granted Haniyeh Turkish citizenship in 2020. His deputy, Saleh al-Arouri, also received a Turkish passport.
SADAT, a private military contractor in Turkey led by an Islamist general with close ties to Erdogan, facilitates colloboration between Hamas and Turkey. Israeli security officials believe that SADAT is responsible for supplying Hamas with weapons and materiel.
On 19 April 2025, Turkish Intelligence Chief Ibrahim Kalin met Muhammad Darwish, the head of Hamas’ Shura Council, and his delegation.
Hamas’s then-Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh visited the Mavi Marmara in Istanbul in 2012.
The presence of Hamas operatives in Turkey has been known to IDF for many years now. However, despite targeting Hamas operatives all over the Middle East, including yria, Lebanon, Iran, and Qatar, the IDF has not targeted Hamas operatives in Turkey.
However, that could change in the future, as the interests of Turkey and Israel are also at odds with each other in Syria.
Syria: The New Battleground For Israel And Turkey
Ever since Turkey-supported Syrian rebel group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) came to power in Damascus in December 2024, Israel has attacked Syria multiple times.
On 2 April 2025, Israeli forces conducted military strikes against multiple strategic targets within Syrian territory, specifically targeting aviation infrastructure. According to multiple reports, Turkey was contemplating deploying its forces at these sites.
In a clear message to Israel, Turkey has also threatened that Ankara can bring Syria under its air defense protection.
While Turkey is determined to safeguard its influence in Syria under the new friendly regime, Israel has expressed significant security concerns regarding potential Islamist presence near its borders.
For now Turkey and Israel have avoided direct military confrontation in Syria, even carving out informally their respective spheres of influence; however, this delicate balancing act could unravel very quickly.
Can Israel Launch Pre-Emptive Strikes On Turkey?
With air strikes in Qatar, Israel has sent a clear message that it will attack Hamas whereever they are.
Turkish support to Hamas has been well known and well documented. However, the question remain; Can Netanyahu go as far as attacking Turkey?
Turkey has been a NATO member since 1952, has a burgeoning defense industry, and has the second largest standing army in the NATO allaince after the US.
NATO’s Article 5 that enshrines the principle of collective defense is often cited as the reason while Israel will not commit any military aggression against Turkey.
However, contrary to popular belief, the collective NATO response under this article is not automatic.
Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty states:
“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them . . . shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking . . . such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.”
As the reader can see, the language used in Article 5 is fairly flexible.
According to a research paper published in the Brennan Centre for Justice, “It permits each NATO member to decide for itself what action should be taken to address an armed attack on a NATO ally.”
“It does not require any member to respond with military force, although it permits such responses as a matter of international law. A member may decide that instead of responding with force, it will send military equipment to NATO allies or impose sanctions on the aggressor.”
Furthermore, even if a NATO member is attacked, the US President can not send US troops to the conflict simply by invoking Article 5 of the NATO charter. The US President would still need congressional approval before sending US military.
Article 11 of the NATO charter explains that “its provisions [shall be] carried out by the Parties in accordance with their respective constitutional processes.”
In the United States, that means securing express authorization from Congress, which has the sole constitutional power to declare war and is responsible for military appropriations and oversight.
Turkey is already isolated in NATO, as it has taken contrary positions in NATO alliance on a host of issues. Given these circumstances, it is highly unlikely that the US, or even European countries, will declare war on Israel to protect Turkey.
Furthermore, while Turkey has a formidable air force and a strong drone industry, unlike Iran, Turkish missile arsenal is not fully developed.
During the 12-day Iran-Israel war, Tehran was able to launch hundreds of ballistic missiles into Israel; however, in a potential conflict with Israel, Ankara might struggle.
Furthermore, while Turkey has a more modern air force compared to Iran, it is still no match to Israel’s air force, which also has nearly 75 F-35 stealth jets.
Additionally, while Turkey is developing an integrated, multi-layered indigeneous air defense system, called Steel Dome, it is still not fully developed and is not comparable to Israel’s advanced air defense systems, which include THAAD, Patriot, Iron Dome, Arrow, David Sling and Iron Beam.
Clearly, Turkey will be a much harder nut for Israel to crack; but Israel has the option for covert operations to eliminate Hamas leadershiip in the country.
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