Weakening America-India ties are not only a diplomatic error, they will likely prevent the country from doing well in the event of a new war.

India’s deepening ties with Russia and China are more than a diplomatic setback. They strike at the heart of America’s ability to prevail in the next major conflict. Without India as a manufacturing and strategic partner, the United States risks losing the kind of industrial edge that once made us unstoppable. Trade talks between President Trump and Prime Minister Modi may offer a reprieve, but only if Washington seizes the opportunity.

In World War II, America prevailed because of its industrial base. In the next one, it will fall short, and that’s why India matters. Between 1940 and 1945, American factories produced nearly 300,000 aircraft, 124,000 ships of all types, and 86,000 tanks. Ford retooled a plant for cars to one for bombers, turning out one B-24 an hour. General Motors shifted seamlessly to machine guns and engines. This adaptability, fueled by a vast labor pool of unemployed workers, immigrants, and women entering the workforce, was its decisive advantage.

That manufacturing prowess no longer exists in America. From pandemic supply shortages to depleted missile stockpiles in Ukraine and chronic naval shipbuilding delays, its industrial fragility is now undeniable. If the United States faces a multi-theater conflict with a peer adversary tomorrow, its factories can’t keep pace.

Its workforce problems are just as acute. Skilled machinists, welders, and technicians are retiring faster than they can be replaced. Defense contractors already face shortages for current projects, let alone the surge capacity a major war would require. Restrictive immigration policies have left us without the skilled labor that once fueled its wartime industries.

These weaknesses would be troubling in any era, but they are especially dangerous now, as the nature of war itself is changing. The Ukraine conflict has made clear what the next era of war will look like. Drone warfare is more about scale than sophistication. Inevitably, swarms of cheap drones can overwhelm even the best defenses. Victory will go to the country that can produce the most drones at the lowest cost. On this front, China already dominates. China holds a 70 percent share of the global drone market, and its manufacturers depend on Chinese components.

This is where India mattered. With its “Make in India” initiative, the country has built a vast and growing manufacturing base. By 2026, it was on track to become the world’s second-largest producer of iPhones. The leap from smartphones to drones is natural. Both require precision manufacturing, software integration, and complex supply chains. India also offers what America lacks: a massive, skilled, and cost-effective workforce. Its engineers already excel in software, AI, and navigation systems critical to modern drones.

A US-India defense alliance could combine America’s innovation with India’s scale. America could design the next generation of drone systems while India produces them in the quantities a modern war demands. Instead, Washington chose sanctions and tariffs. India, unwilling to cut ties with Russia and angered by punitive US measures, has turned toward Moscow and even Beijing. That drift is astonishing given India’s bloody border clashes with China and its history of conflict over Kashmir.

The United States nearly squandered its chance to build a partnership with the world’s largest democracy. Sanctions have pushed India to walk away from F-35 purchases and closer to America’s adversaries. Renewed trade talks offer a second chance. But they must begin by eliminating punitive sanctions. History will not be kind to this moment if it becomes the point at which the United States chooses isolation over alliance-building.

America still has strengths in innovation, from Silicon Valley to SpaceX. But ingenuity without industrial scale is not enough. Wars are not won by prototypes or patents, but by production lines and workers who can meet the demands of prolonged conflict. Without India, America risks facing China alone in the very domain where China is strongest: mass manufacturing.