As a result of recent Russian drone incursions into Poland, NATO increased its defense posture, dubbed “Eastern Sentry.” But a NATO-enforced no-fly zone over Ukraine appears highly unlikely.

On Tuesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters that President Donald Trump could meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in New York City next week. Both leaders are expected to attend the United Nations General Assembly.

“President Trump [has had] multiple calls with Putin, multiple meetings with Zelenskyy, including probably next week again in New York,” Rubio told reporters during his visit to Israel moments before departing for Qatar. “He’s trying to do everything possible to bring [the war] to an end.”

A “No-Fly Zone” over Ukraine Probably Isn’t Practical

Any planned meeting between the two leaders would come amid calls for NATO to increase its pressure against Russia, including a proposed no-fly zone over Ukraine. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski has been vocal about the need for such a no-fly zone, after Russian drones violated Polish airspace earlier this month. NATO fighter jets that were part of air policing deployments on the alliance’s eastern flank succeeded in downing the unarmed drones.

“We as NATO and the EU could be capable of doing this, but it is not a decision that Poland can make alone; it can only be made with its allies,” Sikorski told the German news outlet Frankfurter Allgemeine on Monday. “Protection for our population—for example, from falling debris—would naturally be greater if we could combat drones and other flying objects beyond our national territory.”

The Polish minister further suggested that if Kyiv were to ask NATO to shoot down drones or missiles over its territory, NATO should consider it.

A Ukrainian no-fly zone has been promoted by Zelensky since shortly after Russia launched its unprovoked invasion in February 2022. However, the danger of such a zone is that it would necessarily invite escalation; if Russia decided to violate the declaration and fly its aircraft over Ukraine, NATO forces would be forced either to abandon the no-fly zone, showing their proclamations to be toothless, or to shoot the Russian aircraft down, inviting a broader war between Russia and NATO.

For these reasons, former President Joe Biden turned down the request, and the idea has been repeatedly rejected over fears that it would inevitably result in an open confrontation between the two sides.

NATO Is Beefing Up Its “Eastern Sentry” Missions

As a result of the recent incursions, NATO increased its defense posture, dubbed “Eastern Sentry.” It has seen the deployment of additional assets from Denmark, France, the United Kingdom, and others, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced on Friday. At least four German Eurofighter Typhoons and three nuclear-capable French Dassault Rafale omnirole fighters have been deployed to Poland.

“Eastern Sentry will add flexibility and strength to our posture and make clear that, as a defensive alliance, we are always ready to defend,” Rutte said in a statement. He further called Russia’s drone incursion into Poland “a danger and unacceptable.”

However, soon after NATO announced that it would bolster its forces, alliance aircraft responded to an incursion into Romanian airspace.

The Kremlin has not commented on the build-up of NATO forces in Poland, but it has made clear that any NATO strikes against Russia’s drones or missiles in Ukraine would be seen as its direct involvement in the conflict. Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, who previously served as Russia’s president and prime minister, was even more direct in a post on the Telegram social messaging app.

“The implementation of the provocative idea of Kyiv and other idiots about creating a ‘no-fly zone over Ukraine’ and the ability for NATO countries to shoot down our UAVs will mean only one thing—a war between NATO and Russia,” Medvedev wrote in a Telegram post on Monday.

Medvedev added, “Things must be called by their proper names!”