The European elite's Africa policy is heavily influenced by concerns about migration and demographic shifts.

These concerns are a major driver of policy, shaping everything from development aid to security partnerships, often with the primary goal of containing migration before it reaches Europe's borders.

Migration as a Primary Geopolitical Concern

Since the 2015 migration crisis, the EU has increasingly prioritized migration control in its relationship with African nations. European policy elites view irregular migration from Africa as a significant political and security issue, especially with the rise of anti-immigrant populist parties. This has led to a shift in policy from a focus on development and human rights to one of border security and containment.

• Transactional Relationships: European states and the EU now engage in transactional diplomacy with African countries. They offer incentives like financial aid, trade agreements, or visa policies in exchange for cooperation on migration control, including border surveillance, readmission of irregular migrants, and combating human trafficking. This approach, while sometimes leading to new partnerships, often neglects the broader development needs and priorities of African countries.

• The Externalization of Borders: The core of this strategy is the "externalization" of Europe's borders. Rather than managing migration at their own borders, European countries are using aid and security partnerships to push their borders further south into Africa. This is evident in initiatives like the EU Emergency Trust Fund for Africa, which, while ostensibly aimed at addressing the "root causes" of migration, has been heavily criticized for disproportionately funding border control and law enforcement rather than sustainable development.

Demographic Concerns and the "Fortress Europe" Mentality

European elites' anxieties about migration are inextricably linked to demographic fears. Europe faces an aging and shrinking population, while Africa has the world's youngest and fastest-growing population. This demographic contrast fuels a sense of urgency and perceived threat.

• The "Threat" Narrative: The large-scale demographic shifts in Africa are often framed in Europe not as an opportunity, but as a potential "invasion" or "crisis." This narrative, amplified by populist politicians, creates a political environment that favors restrictive policies. It promotes a "Fortress Europe" mentality, where the primary goal is to seal off the continent from what is seen as an inevitable wave of future migrants.

• The "Demographic Dividend" Mismatch: African nations are poised to have a massive youth bulge, which, if properly harnessed, could be a demographic dividend for the continent. However, without sufficient job creation and economic opportunities, this youth bulge could lead to increased unemployment and social unrest, further fueling migration. European policy, while sometimes paying lip service to addressing these root causes, often prioritizes short-term migration control over the long-term, structural changes needed to foster African economic development.

Climate Change as a Driver

A growing concern for European elites is the role of climate change as a future driver of migration. Africa is disproportionately affected by climate change, with events like droughts, floods, and desertification threatening livelihoods and displacing communities.

• Forced Displacement: The International Organization for Migration (IOM) and other bodies predict that climate-related displacement could affect tens of millions of people in Africa by 2050. Many of these displaced people will likely move internally or to neighboring countries, but a significant number may seek to migrate to Europe.

• Preemptive Policies: This looming threat has added a new layer of urgency to European policy. While some European initiatives address climate adaptation in Africa, they are often seen through the lens of migration prevention.

• The underlying policy logic is to invest in climate resilience in Africa to prevent future migration, rather than viewing it as an ethical obligation or a shared global challenge.

• This approach further solidifies the transactional and self-serving nature of Europe's Africa policy.