The current European Union (EU) vision for enlargement and integration of candidate countries in the Balkans and Eastern Europe is a significantly re-energized and strategically driven commitment, primarily framed by the urgent geopolitical necessity to unify the continent following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

This vision is characterized by two parallel tracks: a continuous, merit-based accession process for candidates, and a proactive effort to implement pre-enlargement integration and internal EU reform to ensure the Union's capacity to absorb new members.

Geopolitical Imperative and Renewed Commitment

The primary catalyst for the renewed enlargement vision is the recognition of enlargement as a geostrategic investment in peace, security, stability, and prosperity for the entire European continent.

• Countering External Influence: Integrating the Western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia) and the Eastern European partners (Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia) is seen as essential to securing Europe's borders and countering the destabilizing influence of external actors, particularly Russia and China, in the EU's neighborhood.

• Strategic Choice: For the EU and candidate countries, membership is explicitly framed as a strategic choice, with a strong emphasis on the candidate countries' alignment with the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), including adherence to EU sanctions.

• Accelerated Momentum: Following the grant of candidate status to Ukraine and Moldova in 2022, and the decision to open accession negotiations with them and Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2024, the enlargement process has gained significant political momentum after years of stagnation, particularly in the Western Balkans.

New Tools for Phased-in Integration

The modern enlargement vision introduces new instruments to provide tangible benefits to candidate countries before full membership, aiming to accelerate reforms and socio-economic convergence. This strategy, often referred to as gradual integration or phasing-in, makes the long accession process more politically and economically attractive.

The Growth Plan for the Western Balkans

Adopted by the European Commission in 2023, the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans is the most concrete example of this new approach. It aims to accelerate the region’s socio-economic convergence to the EU average, currently around 35%.

1. Enhancing Economic Integration with the EU Single Market: This pillar offers closer association with the EU's single market in seven priority areas, including:

   • Access to the Single Euro Payments Area (SEPA).

   • Integration into the Digital Single Market.

   • Facilitation of Road Transport and integration of energy markets.

   • Access to the free movement of goods, services, and workers in specific sectors.

2. Boosting Economic Integration within the Western Balkans: It pushes for the full implementation of the Common Regional Market (CRM), based on EU rules, as a necessary stepping-stone to the EU Single Market.

3. Accelerating Fundamental Reforms: Access to funding is strictly conditioned on the implementation of deep socio-economic and fundamental reforms, particularly concerning the rule of law, democracy, anti-corruption, and judicial independence.

4. Increased Financial Assistance: A new Reform and Growth Facility for the Western Balkans provides a €6 billion funding envelope (€2 billion in grants and €4 billion in concessional loans) for the period 2024-2027, paid out upon the fulfillment of agreed reform agendas.

The Ukraine Facility

A similar financial and reform mechanism is in place for Ukraine, the Ukraine Facility, providing up to €50 billion over four years (2024–2027) to support its financial stability, recovery, and the implementation of key reforms necessary for EU accession.

Focus on Fundamentals and Merit-Based Progress

The core of the EU’s enlargement methodology remains steadfast: the process is merit-based and depends on a candidate country’s objective and irreversible progress in meeting the Copenhagen Criteria.

• Fundamentals Cluster: The accession process continues to place primary emphasis on the "fundamentals cluster," which includes:

  • Rule of Law: Judicial reform, fighting corruption and organized crime, and ensuring institutional independence.

  • Democracy and Governance: Strengthening democratic institutions, media freedom, and ensuring an enabling environment for civil society.

  • Economic Criteria: Ensuring a functioning market economy and the capacity to cope with competitive pressure and market forces within the EU.

• Conditionality: New financial and integration tools, like the Growth Plan, are designed to reinforce this conditionality, linking tangible benefits directly to the track record of reform implementation. This is intended to increase the credibility of the accession process and minimize the risk of backsliding post-accession.

Internal EU Reform to Prepare for Enlargement

EU leaders widely agree that the Union must reform its own institutions, policies, and budget to ensure it is fit for a larger membership (possibly up to 35 members). This is often viewed as a parallel prerequisite for the next major enlargement. Without internal reforms, an enlarged EU, particularly one including countries as large as Ukraine, could face institutional paralysis and strained finances.

Key Areas of Proposed EU Reform

1. Governance and Decision-Making:

   • Qualified Majority Voting (QMV): A key discussion point is expanding the use of QMV to replace the principle of unanimity in sensitive areas (like foreign policy and taxation) to prevent individual member states from blocking decisions. The use of existing "passerelle clauses" to shift to QMV without a full Treaty change is being explored.

   • Institutional Capacity: Reforms to the size and composition of the European Parliament and the European Commission are being considered to maintain efficiency and fair representation.

2. Budgetary and Financial Review:

   • Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF): The next long-term EU budget will need a significant overhaul to accommodate new members, particularly given the potential impact on the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and Cohesion Policy, which currently consume the largest parts of the budget and would be drastically affected by the accession of a large agricultural country like Ukraine.

   • Increased Budget: An enlarged EU will likely require an increased overall budget to meet its strategic goals and maintain convergence across all member states without destabilizing existing members' economies.

3. Policy Adaptation:

   • Common Agricultural Policy (CAP): The structure and funding of the CAP must be adapted, given the scale of the agricultural sectors in the candidate countries, especially Ukraine.

   • Cohesion Policy: The system of regional development funds will need reform to continue providing effective support for economic and social convergence in all regions.

   • Security and Defence: Closer integration of candidate countries into the EU's security structures and alignment with its Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP).

Timeline and "2030" Ambition

While the EU maintains that the accession process is merit-based and rejects a rigid date, there is a widely discussed political ambition—often linked to European Council President Charles Michel's proposal—to have both the EU and the new members ready for enlargement by 2030. This target serves as a political benchmark to drive both accession reforms in candidate countries and internal reforms within the EU.

Conclusion

The current vision for EU enlargement to the Balkans and Eastern Europe is a strategic shift from the stalled and fatigued process of the past. It is an acknowledgment that geopolitical stability and European unity demand the full integration of these partners. This vision couples the traditional, demanding merit-based path of deep structural reform (the Copenhagen Criteria) with new mechanisms for gradual, phased-in integration (e.g., the Growth Plan) and a clear, albeit challenging, requirement for internal EU reform to ensure the Union's future effectiveness. The goal is a larger, stronger, and more geopolitically capable Union, built on the irreversible foundation of democracy, the rule of law, and a functioning market economy across the continent.