Canada’s Arctic resources and shipping routes could become a new frontier for China’s geopolitical ambitions, as climate change makes the region more accessible.

China's strategic interest in the Arctic is driven by access to vast untapped natural resources and the potential for new, shorter shipping routes.

This poses a challenge to Canada's sovereignty and security, which has historically been a key policy priority in the region.

China’s Strategic Interests in a Changing Arctic 

China, which has declared itself a "near-Arctic state" despite its geographic distance, sees the region as a vital component of its global ambitions. This is driven by two key factors:

• Natural Resources: The Arctic is estimated to hold about 22% of the world's undiscovered oil and gas reserves, along with significant deposits of critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and rare earths, which are essential for China's technological and military industries. The melting ice caps make these resources more accessible, and China seeks to secure a stake in their development.

• Shipping Routes: The warming climate is opening new sea routes, most notably the Northern Sea Route (NSR) through Russian territory and, potentially, the Northwest Passage (NWP) through Canada's Arctic archipelago. These routes could significantly reduce transit times between Asia and Europe, offering an attractive alternative to the Suez and Panama Canals. China is investing heavily in icebreakers and commercial shipping to capitalize on these new opportunities, which it has dubbed the "Polar Silk Road."

Canada's Sovereignty and Security Challenges 

China's ambitions directly challenge Canada's long-standing claims of sovereignty over its Arctic territories and waters, which Canada considers internal waters.

• Undermining Sovereignty: China’s assertion that the Arctic is the "common heritage of mankind" and its repeated emphasis on freedom of navigation directly clashes with Canada's claim to full jurisdiction over the Northwest Passage. By pursuing shipping through these routes without Canada's explicit permission, China could be perceived as undermining Canadian sovereignty.

• Military-Civil Fusion: A key concern for Canada and its allies is China's "Military-Civil Fusion" strategy. Civilian research activities and commercial investments in the Arctic, such as scientific stations, can be leveraged for military purposes. For example, oceanographic and acoustic surveys conducted by Chinese vessels could be used to gather intelligence for submarine operations. This makes it difficult to distinguish between benign economic activity and a strategic military presence.

• Investment as a Geopolitical Tool: While most of China's investments in the Canadian Arctic have so far been limited or unsuccessful, its attempts to acquire Canadian mining companies, particularly those involved in critical minerals, are a major security concern. These investments could give China control over vital supply chains and intelligence-gathering opportunities. Canada's government has responded by ordering Chinese firms to divest their shares in Canadian critical mineral companies.