Control over oil and natural gas reserves is of central and enduring importance to Europe's Middle East strategy, though the nature and expression of this centrality have evolved significantly.

Historically, it was about securing direct access and control over the vast resources of the Persian Gulf and North Africa. Today, it is primarily about energy security, diversification of supply, and ensuring the stability of transit routes—a shift that makes stable political relationships and regional peace as crucial as the resources themselves.

1. The Historical Core: Securing and Controlling Supply (Pre-2000s)

For much of the 20th century, European foreign policy in the Middle East was essentially a function of securing access to, and often control over, the region's massive oil reserves.

• Colonial Roots: European powers, notably Britain and France, established their political and military presence (through Mandates and other arrangements) directly to secure energy interests. The discovery of large oil fields in Iraq, Iran, and the Arabian Peninsula made these regions vital to European industrial and military power.

• The Suez Crisis (1956): This event, which saw France and the UK attempt to regain control of the nationalized Suez Canal, demonstrated the extent to which European powers were willing to use force to protect their control over the region's main oil transit chokepoint.

• The Oil Crises (1970s): The 1973 Arab oil embargo, imposed by the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC) against the West, was a traumatic shock that exposed Europe's vulnerability and cemented the fear that oil could be weaponized. This fear of a politically motivated supply cut remains a key driver of policy.

In this era, the strategy was focused on maintaining a favorable political environment for Western oil companies (the "Seven Sisters") and preventing any regional power from unilaterally disrupting the flow of cheap crude.

2. The Current Imperative: Energy Security and Diversification

The landscape has changed, but the centrality of Middle Eastern energy remains, driven by the modern concept of energy security—the availability of energy at all times at an affordable price.

A. The Pivot from Russian Gas

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 drastically reshaped Europe's energy strategy. The swift reduction of reliance on Russian natural gas elevated the importance of suppliers in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to an urgent geopolitical priority.

• Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): European nations rushed to secure long-term LNG deals with states like Qatar and, increasingly, with key players in the Eastern Mediterranean (such as Israel and Egypt, which possess liquefaction capabilities) to compensate for the lost Russian pipeline supply.

• Oil Stability: While the EU has successfully diversified its oil sources, the Middle East—specifically the Gulf states led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE—remains the global swing producer through OPEC+. Their production decisions directly influence global prices and the stability of the European economy. Europe's engagement with the Gulf is heavily focused on ensuring they maintain sufficient production capacity and do not unilaterally restrict supply.

B. Strategic Transit Routes (Chokepoints)

Europe's energy security is not just about the source of the oil and gas but the safe passage of tanker traffic. The region contains critical maritime chokepoints, whose closure would have devastating economic consequences for Europe:

• Strait of Hormuz: The narrow entry to the Persian Gulf, through which a significant portion of the world's oil and a vast amount of LNG (especially from Qatar) must pass.

• Suez Canal and Bab al-Mandab: These routes connect the Gulf and Asia to the Mediterranean. Instability in Yemen or the Red Sea, exemplified by recent Houthi attacks, necessitates a direct European security presence (naval missions) to protect commercial and energy flows.

The strategy here is not just about the resources in the ground but the geopolitical stability of the sea lanes.

3. The Future and the Paradox of the Green Transition

Control over fossil fuels is being re-imagined in the context of the green transition, creating a complex, two-track European strategy.

A. Fossil Fuels as a 'Bridge'

Even with ambitious renewable energy goals, Europe recognizes that oil and natural gas will be essential bridge fuels for at least the next two decades. This requires European policy to maintain robust, functional relationships with MENA suppliers to ensure a smooth, managed transition. This pragmatic need often conflicts with the EU's stated values of promoting democracy and human rights in the region, leading to charges of realpolitik.

B. The New Energy Focus: Hydrogen and Renewables

Europe is increasingly viewing the MENA region not just as a source of fossil fuels, but as a key partner for future clean energy supply.

• Green Hydrogen: Countries in North Africa (like Morocco and Egypt) and the Gulf have vast, cheap solar and wind energy potential, which can be used to produce Green Hydrogen for export to Europe. Europe is actively investing in and forging long-term partnerships—such as the EU's "green alliances" with countries like Egypt—to build the infrastructure for this new energy trade, potentially replacing old resource dependencies with new ones.

• Energy Infrastructure: The EU's strategy involves supporting projects that interconnect European and MENA energy grids, turning the Mediterranean into a shared energy market.

This long-term perspective suggests a shift from seeking control over resources to fostering interdependence through a stable, diversified supply chain that aligns with Europe's climate objectives. However, critics argue that the rush to secure green hydrogen projects risks replicating neocolonial, extractive patterns, where European needs drive the economic model of its neighbours.

Conclusion

Control over oil and natural gas reserves is not the only driver of Europe's Middle East strategy (security, migration, and counter-terrorism are also vital), but it remains the primary foundational and material interest.

The strategy has evolved from outright colonial control to a focus on energy security driven by diversification and stability. Today's European engagement with the Middle East is a precarious balancing act: maintaining relations with fossil fuel exporters to navigate the short-to-medium-term energy crisis, while simultaneously investing in green energy partnerships for the long-term future. This duality underscores that while the source of the energy may change, the geographical centrality of the MENA region to Europe's economic and security well-being will endure.