Pakistan is emerging as a new security guarantor in the Middle East, filling the security vacuum left behind by the Trump administration.

Israel’s attacks on Doha on September 9 signalled a change in the Israel-Gaza war–even US partners were not safe from Israel’s growing agenda. While the United States faced issues of credibility in the region, Pakistan was negotiating a new regional security guarantee with Saudi Arabia to ensure that there are other actors involved in defending the security of the Gulf States. 

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have long held close ties with one another, but have not agreed to a formal security defense pact until now. Pakistan has a long history of sending its troops to Saudi Arabia for training and combat, most notably in 1979 during the siege of Mecca. Islamabad has experience in extending its troops beyond its borders, making it a pragmatic choice for this kind of regional role. 

Of course, an agreement of this magnitude could not have occurred without tacit approval from the Trump administration. With its America-First agenda, the United States’ current posture has demonstrated its lack of interest in remaining a regional watchdog, particularly given its strong support of Israel’s expansionary project. 

Pakistani prime minister Shehbaz Sharif and Chief of Army Staff and Field Marshal Asim Munir were invited to the White House to celebrate their cooperation with the United States, signalling a warmer relationship than what has existed before. For Pakistan, this turn of events puts Islamabad in a position it has long wanted: an involved partner in the Muslim world, a military power that rivals India, and a recipient of American goodwill and weapons, via Saudi Arabia. 

Additionally, Pakistan and the United States are expanding their partnership in mining critical minerals. Pakistan shipped its first batch of enriched rare earth minerals to the United States on October 2, the start of a longer-term memorandum of understanding with trade valued at $500 million. Islamabad is also hoping that Washington will invest in a new port at Pansi in the Gwadar district, which would give the United States easier access to the critical minerals needed for it to remain competitive in the semiconductor industry. 

After President Trump’s first term, Pakistan was left wanting in its relationship with the United States. During this time, Islamabad turned to Beijing for investment, economic opportunities, and a longer-term partnership that resulted in CPEC and infrastructure development. 

While the two countries remain strategic partners, China cannot shepherd additional diplomatic and economic initiatives, but benefits greatly from its partners diversifying their security options away from relying solely on the United States. Saudi Arabia has provided economic support for Pakistan for decades, particularly after it finished testing its nuclear weapons to offset any sanctions. Pakistan’s current economic forecast is looking grim, especially after catastrophic flooding this year, and Islamabad desperately needs an ally who will help bail it out of this economic pit. 

Additionally, China has never sent its troops far beyond its borders and therefore cannot act as a regional security guarantor in the way that Pakistan can. After the Israeli attacks in Doha, the Arab Gulf States were left to find a strategic partner that would remain involved in the region. The GCC has acted jointly in the past to provide security for one another, but this has been limited to law enforcement and defensive positioning, such as during the Arab Spring. In order to counter a force like Israel, the Arab states will need a partner with much more military might and experience. 

On the sidelines of UNGA, the Pakistani delegation has made significant efforts to maintain its advantageous position after the war with India in May. Pakistan emerged from the conflict relatively unscathed, having demonstrated both its military and diplomatic prowess. Prime Minister Sharif met with Qatari emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani after the September 9 attacks, reiterating that the Muslim world must come together to “confront Israeli provocations”, signalling Islamabad’s desire to be a player on the world stage, particularly in regard to defending Gaza. 

While the exact details of this new Pakistani-Saudi pact remain unclear, what is certain is that Pakistan is making diplomatic moves to show how its non-aligned status can benefit not only the United States but also regional actors. Pakistan has been strengthening its ties with Bangladesh and Sri Lanka as well, indicating its desire to strike while the iron is hot after India’s staunch denial of a US-brokered ceasefire in May.