The Madagascar Uprising: An Analysis of Pros and Cons for the Current Situation

The wave of youth-led protests that began in late September 2025 across Madagascar, quickly dubbed the "Madagascar Uprising" by some, represents a critical juncture in the nation's political and social trajectory. Sparked by immediate grievances like chronic power outages and water shortages, the movement rapidly broadened into an expression of deep-seated frustration over pervasive poverty, corruption, and governance failures. This analysis will explore the complex situation that has emerged—characterized by a dissolved government, new appointments, demands for reform, and a heightened risk of instability—by weighing the potential long-term benefits (Pros) against the immediate and continuing dangers (Cons).

Context of the Current Situation

Madagascar remains one of the world's poorest countries, with approximately 75% of its population living below the poverty line. Years of economic hardship, coupled with a history of political crises and military interventions, have created an environment of fragility. The current unrest, largely coordinated online by groups like "Gen Z Madagascar," is a contemporary reflection of global trends where a highly connected, disillusioned youth populace challenges entrenched political elites. The government's initial response included the imposition of curfews, the sacking of the Prime Minister and entire Cabinet, and the appointment of a military general as the new head of government—moves that have been criticized as insufficient or even provocative by the protesters. The situation is marked by a tragic human cost, with the United Nations reporting at least 22 fatalities and over a hundred injuries, a figure disputed by the government.

I. Pros: Potential Long-Term Benefits Emerging from the Unrest

The protests, despite their violence and potential for further destabilization, carry the seeds of profound, positive change by acting as a powerful and necessary shock to the political system.

1. Enhanced Political Accountability and Responsiveness (The Shock Effect)

The most immediate and tangible positive outcome is the forcing of the political elite to acknowledge and, to some extent, respond to public suffering. President Andry Rajoelina’s decision to dissolve the government and issue an apology for the government’s failings marks a significant, albeit politically calculated, concession.

• Direct Concessions: The initial protests were triggered by service delivery failures. By dismissing the entire cabinet, the President has tacitly accepted responsibility for the visible signs of poor governance. While a new government has been formed, the speed and scale of the cabinet reshuffle demonstrate a recognition that the status quo is politically untenable.

• Forcing Dialogue and Action: The movement, and its sustained presence despite repression, has forced the President to offer a "national dialogue." Although the Gen Z group has so far rejected this offer, the mere necessity of such a public overture is a win for the principle of popular sovereignty. It sets a new benchmark for public participation that a future Malagasy government, regardless of who leads it, will struggle to ignore.

2. Mobilization and Empowerment of the Youth and Civil Society

The protests have been overwhelmingly driven by a digital-native generation, "Gen Z Madagascar," which signifies a tectonic shift in the country's political landscape.

• New Form of Political Agency: The use of social media (Facebook) for decentralized, agile organization bypasses traditional, easily co-opted political structures. This horizontal network model makes the movement harder to suppress by eliminating a single, vulnerable leadership to target.

• Broadening the Political Agenda: The demands have moved beyond immediate concerns (power/water) to systemic, constitutional issues, including an overhaul of the Constitutional Court and the dissolution of the Senate. This pivot from grievance to structural reform provides a clear, progressive political direction for the aftermath of the crisis, shifting the focus from simple regime change to deep institutional cleansing.

• Inspiring a New Political Culture: The Gen Z movement, inspired by similar uprisings in Kenya and Nepal and using symbols like the pirate flag (representing freedom against corruption), is cultivating a more defiant, globally aware, and politically engaged generation. This rising generation represents the most powerful long-term force for democratic resilience and anti-corruption in Madagascar.

3. Renewed International Scrutiny and Pressure

Mass protests and a disputed death toll inevitably draw the attention of international bodies, donors, and development partners.

• Focus on Human Rights: The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights' condemnation of the "disproportionate force" used by security forces and the demand for the release of arbitrarily detained protesters places immediate, tangible pressure on the government to restrain its security apparatus and respect fundamental freedoms.

• Leverage for Governance Reforms: International financial institutions (like the IMF and World Bank), upon whose aid and loans Madagascar is heavily dependent, will now have increased leverage to condition future support on genuine governance and anti-corruption reforms. Given the pervasive nature of poverty and the need for infrastructural investment (particularly in energy and water), this international conditionality could act as an external anchor for necessary domestic reforms.

II. Cons: Immediate Dangers and Negative Consequences of the Unrest

The current situation is fraught with peril, posing immediate threats to human security, economic stability, and the constitutional order.

1. Escalating Violence and Loss of Life

The most tragic and immediate con is the human cost of the unrest. The reported casualty figures and accounts of security force use of "disproportionate force" highlight a breakdown of the state's responsibility to protect its citizens.

• Security Force Brutality: The involvement of the gendarmerie and police in managing the protests has been widely criticized, with reports of rubber bullets, tear gas, and live ammunition being used. This heavy-handed response risks creating a cycle of escalating confrontation and deepening the public's distrust in state institutions.

• Looting and Anarchy: The protests have been marred by looting of supermarkets, appliance shops, and banks, as well as arson attacks. This criminal opportunism—attributed to "individuals and gangs not associated with the protesters"—destroys private property, undermines legitimate businesses, and causes a collapse in the rule of law. It also allows the government to discredit the entire movement as inherently violent and disorderly.

2. Political Instability and the Risk of Military Intervention

Madagascar has a long, turbulent history of leaders being removed by popular unrest and military coups (1972, 2009). The current situation dangerously heightens this risk.

• The Coup Threat: President Rajoelina's announcement of an "attempted coup" following reports of an elite army unit joining the protests, and his subsequent appointment of a Major General as the new Prime Minister, underscore the extreme political fragility. The use of a military figure as head of government is a classic attempt to placate or contain the armed forces, but it simultaneously increases the military's profile in civilian politics.

• Uncertainty and Policy Paralysis: The dissolution of the government and the continuing unrest create profound uncertainty. This instability deters foreign investment, disrupts domestic commerce, and stalls the implementation of critical economic and development programs (such as those aimed at tackling the country's high poverty rate and climate vulnerability). This short-term paralysis directly harms the very populace the protests seek to uplift.

• Lack of a Cohesive Alternative: While the youth movement is effective at mobilization and demanding resignations, it lacks a unified, politically structured leadership capable of offering a stable, transitionary, or alternative governing platform. This vacuum of political power can easily be exploited by entrenched elites or the military, leading to a non-democratic outcome.

3. Economic Disruption and Exacerbation of Hardship

The unrest directly impacts the fragile Malagasy economy, which is already struggling with high inflation and global headwinds.

• Damage to Commerce and Investment: Looting and sustained civil disorder halt business operations, damage infrastructure, and severely erode investor confidence, both domestic and foreign. The President’s promise to support affected businesses is an acknowledgement of the economic damage, which will ultimately strain the national budget.

• Further Decline in Essential Services: The very services that sparked the protests—power and water—are likely to suffer further disruption. The focus of the government and national resources shifts from maintenance and investment in infrastructure to security and crisis management, potentially leading to an even worse provision of basic services in the short term.

• Impact on the Most Vulnerable: The disruption to supply chains, markets, and employment disproportionately affects the 75% of the population living in poverty. Increased food and energy price volatility due to global factors (such as the recent OPEC+ decision) combined with domestic instability will hit the most vulnerable households the hardest, worsening the already severe humanitarian situation.

The current situation in Madagascar is a high-stakes moment of flux. The pros reside in the potential for the "Madagascar Uprising" to be a cathartic, transformative moment, creating a new, empowered political generation that has irrevocably raised the bar for political accountability, forcing the government to address systemic corruption and life-threatening service delivery failures. This collective digital-era demand for deep, structural reform—extending beyond simple regime change—is a powerful long-term force for genuine democratic progress.

However, the cons are immediate, visceral, and potentially catastrophic. The escalation of violence, the tragic loss of life, the imposition of a high-ranking military official as Prime Minister, and the hovering threat of a full-blown military intervention are real dangers that could extinguish any democratic gains. Furthermore, the short-term economic chaos and disruption to essential services will inflict further suffering on a populace already mired in extreme poverty.

In essence, the current situation is a gamble: a necessary eruption of popular anger with the potential to birth a more responsive, transparent political system, but one that could equally relapse into the familiar, destructive cycle of military rule, political instability, and deeper economic stagnation. The outcome hinges on the ability of the youth movement to translate viral anger into a cohesive political structure, the restraint of the security forces, and the willingness of the established political order to genuinely engage with the demands for structural change rather than simply seeking to contain the crisis. The ultimate legacy of the Madagascar Uprising remains precariously balanced between revolution and relapse.

The current situation in Madagascar is primarily driven by powerful domestic forces, specifically the widespread discontent of the population, particularly the youth (the "Gen Z" movement), over chronic economic hardship, poor public services (power and water), and alleged government corruption.

However, the role of foreign powers is present in two main dimensions: historical and economic influence, and international diplomatic and humanitarian pressure. There is no evidence in current reporting of a specific foreign government or power actively instigating, funding, or directing the protests or the mutiny of the elite military unit (CAPSAT).

Here is a breakdown of the foreign dimensions at play:

1. Historical and Economic Foreign Influence (The Context)

Madagascar's political and economic landscape has always been heavily shaped by external players, and these underlying influences form the context of the current discontent:

• France (Former Colonial Power): France retains significant historical, cultural, and economic ties. Madagascar's institutional structure is heavily influenced by the French system, and French remains an official language. Historically, France has been a major source of foreign assistance and investment. Any significant political upheaval inevitably draws the close attention of Paris, as political stability is key to protecting French economic interests and influence.

• International Financial Institutions (IFIs): Institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are crucial "foreign powers" in the economic sense. Madagascar relies heavily on their aid, loans, and debt relief. The country's deep economic issues, high poverty rate, and failure to improve infrastructure like power and water are directly tied to governance issues that IFIs often pressure the government to address through conditional reforms.

• Global Supply Chains and Commodity Prices: Madagascar's economy, dependent on exports like vanilla and minerals, and vulnerable to import costs like oil and food, is susceptible to global economic fluctuations. Rising global oil and food prices, as noted in the economic context, directly exacerbate the cost of living crisis that fueled the initial protests.

• Development and Donor Countries: Countries like the United States, China, Japan, and European nations provide substantial development aid. Their decisions on aid continuity, especially in the wake of political violence, can exert significant pressure on the Malagasy government. China, in particular, has a growing presence through infrastructure projects and resource interests.

2. International Diplomatic and Humanitarian Pressure (The Reaction)

Major international bodies and human rights organizations have been vocal, representing a form of collective "foreign power" influencing the crisis management:

• The United Nations (UN): The UN Secretary-General has expressed deep sadness over the loss of life, stressed the need for dialogue, and urged authorities to comply with international human rights law. The UN Human Rights Office (OHCHR) has condemned the "disproportionate force" used by security forces and the resulting fatalities, putting the government under public scrutiny.

• Human Rights Organizations: Groups like Amnesty International have issued strong condemnations, calling for prompt investigations into the deadly force used against protesters and demanding the repeal of repressive laws. This advocacy work puts ethical and legal pressure on the regime.

• Regional Organizations: The African Union (AU) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) are key regional players who would be expected to intervene diplomatically to prevent a non-constitutional change of power, especially following the President's warning of an "attempted coup." Their stance on legitimacy and dialogue is critical for the Rajoelina government.

3. The "Gen Z" Global Network (A New Form of Foreign Influence)

The protest movement itself draws strength from a new, non-traditional foreign influence:

• Inspiration and Solidarity: The "Gen Z Madagascar" movement is explicitly stated to be inspired by and in solidarity with similar youth-led movements that have emerged in countries like Kenya, Nepal, Morocco, and Sri Lanka. The adoption of shared symbols (like the pirate flag from the One Piece anime) and social media tactics (decentralized, horizontal organization) reflects a globalized protest culture. This is not government-directed interference, but rather the transnational influence of digital culture and shared grievances against corruption and elite failure.

Summary

In the current immediate crisis, the primary conflict is internal—between the long-suffering Malagasy population and military factions on one side, and the entrenched political administration of President Rajoelina on the other.

However, the situation is not isolated. Foreign powers are at play in the sense that:

1. Economic Dependence on traditional partners (like France) and IFIs (IMF, World Bank) provides external leverage over future stability.

2. Diplomatic and Humanitarian Pressure from the UN and human rights groups constrains the government's use of force and pushes for dialogue.

3. Globalized Digital Culture provides the youth movement with a model, inspiration, and tools for mobilization.