Climate change will reshape supply chains and food security by disrupting every stage of the food system, from production to transportation.

This isn't a future problem; it's already causing more frequent and severe disruptions that are leading to food shortages, price spikes, and a greater risk of famine in vulnerable regions.

The Domino Effect on Food Production 

The first domino to fall is food production itself. As global temperatures rise and weather patterns become more erratic, the agricultural systems that we rely on are becoming more fragile.

• Extreme Weather: The increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events like droughts, floods, and hurricanes are destroying crops and devastating livestock. For example, a severe drought in one major grain-producing region can reduce crop yields and send prices soaring on the global market. Conversely, torrential rainfall can cause widespread flooding that wipes out entire harvests and contaminates soil.

• Shifting Climates: Farmers in some of the world's most productive agricultural regions are struggling to adapt to shifting climate patterns. Changing seasons, longer and hotter summers, and less predictable rainfall make it difficult to know when to plant and harvest. This uncertainty makes it riskier to be a farmer and can lead to a long-term decline in crop yields.

• Pests and Diseases: Warmer temperatures are also causing the spread of pests, weeds, and diseases to new regions. Pests that were once confined to tropical climates are now moving to temperate zones, where they can destroy crops and reduce yields. This forces farmers to use more pesticides and makes the food system more vulnerable to large-scale outbreaks.

The Breakdown of Supply Chains 

Even if food can be produced, getting it from the farm to the consumer is becoming a major challenge. The infrastructure that underpins our global supply chains was not built to withstand the effects of climate change.

• Damage to Infrastructure: Ports, bridges, railways, and highways are all vulnerable to climate-related events. Rising sea levels and more intense storm surges threaten coastal ports, which handle over 90% of global trade. Heavy rain can cause landslides and floods that damage rail lines and roads, cutting off critical transportation routes. In Europe, droughts have repeatedly lowered water levels in key rivers like the Rhine, which is a major artery for inland shipping, forcing cargo vessels to operate at a fraction of their capacity.

• Logistical Disruptions: The entire logistical chain is being affected. Heat waves can cause rail tracks to buckle and airport runways to melt, leading to delays and cancellations. As permafrost thaws in northern regions, it can destabilize the ground beneath roads and pipelines, making them unsafe for transport.

• Increased Costs and Volatility: These disruptions and damages lead to higher costs for transportation, which are then passed on to the consumer in the form of higher prices. The volatility in the supply chain makes it difficult for companies to plan and manage their operations, which can lead to shortages and price spikes.

The Impact on Food Security 

The combined effect of these disruptions is a direct threat to global food security.

• Availability: Climate change impacts the availability of food by reducing crop yields, destroying harvests, and making it harder to transport food to markets.

• Access and Affordability: It impacts access to food by making it more expensive. When supply chains are disrupted, the cost of food rises, which disproportionately affects low-income families and can push them into food insecurity.

• Malnutrition: Climate change also affects the nutritional quality of food. Studies have shown that crops grown in a high-CO2 environment have lower levels of protein and essential nutrients, which can contribute to malnutrition and health problems.

• Vicious Cycle: Agriculture itself is part of a vicious cycle, as it contributes to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions from livestock and deforestation. This means that as the climate crisis intensifies, it also makes it harder to produce the very food we need to survive.