The twenty-first century has been described as the century of technology, but beneath every chip, magnet, and battery lies an invisible resource war — the battle for control of rare earth elements (REEs). These minerals, once obscure and largely unnoticed, now underpin everything from electric vehicles and wind turbines to precision-guided missiles and quantum computers. As the world transitions toward clean energy and digital economies, rare earths have become the new oil — a strategic lever of power that can determine industrial strength, military capability, and global influence.

This part explores how rare earths are reshaping the geopolitical landscape — shifting influence from traditional energy superpowers toward nations that control critical materials, technologies, and refining infrastructure. It examines how countries are realigning their alliances, competing for supply chains, and redefining national security in terms of technological independence rather than just military might.

1. The Rise of Resource Geopolitics 2.0

In the 20th century, global power was defined by oil and gas. Control over energy corridors and petroleum supplies decided wars, alliances, and the fate of nations. In the 21st century, that same geopolitical logic has migrated to critical minerals — especially rare earths.

Unlike oil, which is burned for energy, REEs are used to create the permanent infrastructure of modern civilization — magnets, chips, lasers, and batteries. Their value compounds across industries: one gram of neodymium in a motor may power decades of innovation.

However, these materials are not evenly distributed. China dominates refining, while deposits lie scattered across Africa, Australia, the Americas, and parts of Asia. This asymmetry is redrawing global alliances in profound ways.

2. China’s Commanding Position

China’s dominance in rare earths is not a geological accident but a strategic masterstroke decades in the making. Since the 1980s, Beijing deliberately pursued control over the full rare earth supply chain — from mining to refining to magnet manufacturing.

Today, it controls:

• 60–70% of global mining output.

• 85–90% of refining capacity.

• 95% of high-end permanent magnet production.

This gives China unprecedented leverage over the technologies that power global economies and militaries.

In 2010, Beijing briefly restricted rare earth exports to Japan during a diplomatic dispute, demonstrating how materials could be wielded as a geopolitical weapon. The message was clear: whoever controls rare earths controls the flow of innovation.

China now uses this dominance to attract foreign manufacturers to set up within its borders — deepening its industrial ecosystem. The result is that even Western companies remain tethered to Chinese supply chains despite political tensions.

3. The Western Counter-Strategy

The U.S., Japan, and the European Union have realized the peril of overdependence. The new era of “strategic decoupling” is about rebuilding domestic and allied capacity to mine, refine, and recycle rare earths.

The U.S. Response:

• The Pentagon has identified rare earths as critical to national defense.

• Funding is flowing into domestic mining (e.g., Mountain Pass in California) and partnerships with allies like Australia.

• The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act incentivizes companies to source minerals from allied nations rather than China.

Japan’s Approach:

• Japan’s 2010 experience with China sparked aggressive diversification.

• It invested in rare earth projects in Vietnam, Kazakhstan, and Africa.

• Japan also pioneered cleaner, low-waste refining technologies.

The European Union’s Critical Raw Materials Act (2023):

• Seeks to ensure that by 2030, at least 40% of Europe’s refined materials come from inside the EU or friendly partners.

• Encourages circular economy and recycling of rare earths from e-waste.

These moves mark a new industrial race — a battle for supply chain sovereignty.

4. The New Geopolitical Axis: Minerals Instead of Oil

The old world order revolved around OPEC and oil pipelines. The new order is being built around critical minerals corridors:

• The Indo-Pacific Corridor: linking Australian mines, Indian refineries, and Japanese tech firms.

• The Transatlantic Alliance: between the U.S. and EU to secure supply chains from Africa and South America.

• The BRICS+ Mineral Bloc: where China, Russia, and African states could coordinate resource strategies against Western influence.

Control over rare earths has therefore become a form of “material diplomacy” — the ability to grant or deny access to the building blocks of modern power. This shift also gives emerging regions like Africa and Latin America unprecedented bargaining leverage — a chance to break the cycle of raw-material dependency.

5. Africa: The New Battleground of Influence

Africa holds over 30% of the world’s rare earth reserves, but it refines almost none. This imbalance is now drawing attention from every global power.

• China already operates or finances major rare earth and critical mineral projects in Tanzania, Malawi, and South Africa.

• The U.S. through its Minerals Security Partnership (MSP), seeks to counterbalance China by investing in cleaner mining and processing facilities.

• The EU and Japan are promoting joint ventures under sustainability standards.

Africa’s role in the global rare earth chain will determine whether the continent remains a supplier of raw materials or rises as an industrial power in its own right. Strategic alignment — through bodies like the African Union and AfCFTA — could enable Africa to negotiate from a position of strength, demanding technology transfer, refining partnerships, and fair pricing.

If handled wisely, Africa could become the new global refining hub — balancing East and West while anchoring a new era of South-South industrial cooperation.

6. The Security Dimension: Rare Earths as a Strategic Deterrent

Modern defense systems — fighter jets, satellites, drones, precision missiles — rely heavily on rare earths. A single F-35 jet uses more than 400 kilograms of REE materials.

For this reason, control over REE supply chains has become a matter of national security, not just economic strategy. Nations now treat rare earths like nuclear fuel — stockpiling reserves, subsidizing mining, and classifying refining facilities as “strategic assets.”

The Pentagon, for instance, funds companies like MP Materials and Lynas Rare Earths to ensure U.S. defense production is not interrupted by geopolitical shocks. Similarly, China treats its REE sector as a “strategic pillar industry”, tightly regulating exports and maintaining internal quotas.

This militarization of supply chains marks a profound shift in how nations perceive economic security and warfare readiness.

7. The Emerging Multipolar Order

The rare earth race is accelerating the shift toward a multipolar world, where no single power dominates.

• China leads in refining and industrial scaling.

• The U.S. and EU lead in R&D and end-use technologies.

• Africa, Australia, and Latin America hold the mineral keys to the kingdom.

This interdependence creates both tension and opportunity. On one hand, competition may fragment global trade and increase costs. On the other, it could promote regional self-sufficiency and innovation.

The future of global power will depend less on military size and more on control over technological ecosystems — and rare earths sit at the very heart of that equation.

8. Forecast: The Next 5–10 Years

1. China’s continued dominance: Despite diversification efforts, China will likely retain over 60% of refining capacity by 2035.

2. Rising African influence: Countries like Tanzania, Namibia, and Malawi will attract major investments, especially under BRICS partnerships.

3. Tech nationalism intensifies: Nations will impose export restrictions and invest in domestic value chains to secure sovereignty.

4. New alliances emerge: Expect trilateral cooperation—e.g., Africa-India-Japan or U.S.-EU-Africa—to challenge China’s hold.

5. Environmental competition: Cleaner refining methods will become both a moral and market differentiator.

9. The Mineral Map of Power

Rare earths have redefined what it means to be powerful. Industrial dominance now flows not from the number of tanks or oil wells a nation has, but from its mastery of materials and technology.

In this new order, those who control the invisible elements — neodymium, dysprosium, praseodymium — control the visible future. The geopolitical map of the 21st century will not be drawn by borders, but by supply chains.

Africa’s emergence as a critical player could tilt that map in favor of a more balanced, multipolar world — if it can seize the moment with unity, strategy, and vision.