European elites are actively leveraging U.S. domestic divisions and the resulting policy instability to strengthen their own position on the world stage, primarily by advancing the concept of "Strategic Autonomy."

This strategy transforms the threat of unreliable U.S. leadership into the political justification for greater European unity and capacity.

The Strategic Lever: US Unpredictability as the Catalyst for European Unity

The core of the European strategy is to treat U.S. political polarization not just as a problem, but as the irrefutable evidence that Europe can no longer fully rely on its traditional security guarantor. The domestic turbulence and oscillating foreign policy (particularly the threat of an "America First" isolationist turn) serve as the necessary external shock to overcome traditional European policy paralysis and internal divisions.

1. Justifying "Strategic Autonomy"

The most explicit way European elites leverage U.S. domestic division is by using it to legitimize the push for European Strategic Autonomy (ESA).

• The Narrative: European leaders, notably French President Emmanuel Macron and others, frame U.S. domestic chaos as undermining its credibility and reliability as an ally. This is not just abstract criticism; it's a political argument for a concrete policy shift: Europe must acquire the "capacity to make its own choices and shape the world around it" without U.S. dependency.

• The Political Capital: The mere specter of an unpredictable, isolationist U.S. President gives EU institutions and integrationist member states the political capital to push through initiatives that might otherwise be blocked by member-state sovereignty concerns. This includes:

  • Defense Capacity: Increased pressure on member states to finally meet NATO defense spending targets and, crucially, to invest in genuinely European defense capabilities that do not duplicate, but can act independently of, NATO structures. The goal is a European pillar that can assure its own security if the U.S. pivot to Asia or a withdrawal from NATO leaves a security vacuum.

  • Economic Sovereignty: The U.S.'s turn toward industrial policy and protectionism (e.g., the Inflation Reduction Act) has been leveraged to argue for a more robust European industrial policy, technological sovereignty, and new EU-wide mechanisms to secure critical supply chains.

The Policy Playbook: Three Areas of Exploitation

European elites have been methodical in channeling anxiety over U.S. domestic politics into concrete foreign policy gains.

2. Deepening Alliances with the "Reliable" US

Paradoxically, European elites leverage U.S. divisions by selectively deepening ties with the non-isolationist segments of the U.S. political structure.

• Bypassing the Executive: During periods of executive-branch unpredictability, European leaders and diplomats intensify their outreach to Congress and to sub-federal actors (state governors, mayors, think tanks). This strategy aims to "lock in" support for transatlantic cooperation across the political spectrum, ensuring that the alliance's foundation is broader than a single administration's foreign policy whims.

• Aligning with Values: By consistently emphasizing shared values of democracy and multilateralism, European leaders align themselves with the more internationalist wings of both major U.S. parties, implicitly contrasting their reliability with the isolationist/populist voices that threaten the established order. This effectively makes the EU a partner of choice for those in Washington who seek to uphold the global liberal order.

3. Positioning the EU as the Global Standard-Setter

U.S. policy oscillation on global issues like climate and trade creates a leadership vacuum that European elites aggressively seek to fill.

• Climate Leadership: When the U.S. withdraws from international agreements, the EU doubles down on its commitments (e.g., the Paris Agreement) and simultaneously builds a global coalition of climate-forward nations. This strengthens the EU's image as the steadfast, responsible global actor, while framing the domestically polarized U.S. as the unpredictable outlier. This moral authority is then converted into regulatory power (e.g., the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, which de facto forces global actors to conform to EU climate standards).

• Multilateralism: The retreat of the U.S. from global institutions allows the EU to step up its role in multilateral fora, presenting itself as the defender of the rules-based international system. This increases the EU's influence with non-Western powers who are wary of both U.S. unilateralism and Chinese coercion.

4. Responding to the Security Panic

The constant threat of a U.S. withdrawal from NATO generates a profound sense of urgency and existential panic among European capitals, which is then managed and channeled by European elites.

• Consensus Builder: Leaders use the panic as a common enemy, arguing that division in Europe will only encourage U.S. abandonment. This allows for a common defense and security agenda—a long-standing goal of integrationists—to be accelerated from a decades-long theoretical debate into an immediate practical necessity.

• Reframing the Cost: Defense spending is reframed not as a burden to satisfy the U.S., but as a self-protective insurance policy against the consequences of U.S. domestic instability. This shift in domestic political framing is essential for securing public and parliamentary support for historically unpopular defense investments.

A Shift in the Transatlantic Relationship

The leverage European elites gain from U.S. domestic divisions is not about dominating the U.S. directly, but about reducing their own dependence on it and securing a more independent global role. The U.S. is viewed as a powerful but increasingly unreliable strategic asset.

The key takeaway is a fundamental shift in the transatlantic bargain: European elites are no longer just asking for U.S. engagement; they are building a system that can function without it. By framing U.S. domestic polarization as the single greatest threat to European security, they have created the political mandate for a long-sought goal: the true empowerment of the European Union as a cohesive geopolitical actor on the world stage. This is a clear case of skillfully turning an ally's weakness into a unique opportunity for self-strengthening.