After the International Space Station is decommissioned, China and possibly Russia will have active space stations in low Earth orbit. America will not.

The International Space Station (ISS) has been the centerpiece of American human spaceflight for 25 years. Some have (rightly) argued that the ISS was a bit of a dead end, siphoning much-needed resources away from more lucrative (though expensive) human spaceflight endeavors, like returning to the moon or landing on Mars, and keeping American astronauts bottled up within the safe confines of Earth’s orbit. Nevertheless, the ISS has kept America’s manned spaceflight program going since the space shuttle program was canceled more than a decade ago. 

But those days are ending. 

The End of the ISS Is Drawing Near

NASA, regardless of what Washington may want it to do, is having to face the prospect of the end of the ISS. That’s because the station is nearing the end of its life cycle and will need to be decommissioned due to safety concerns. Sure, NASA can probably coax another few years out of the ISS. Ultimately, though, the station’s days are numbered.

And there is no serious plan yet as to how the Americans will maintain their semi-permanent presence in Earth’s orbit. That’s a problem for Washington. Unlike the Americans, the Chinese now have an advanced modular space station with a semi-permanent presence in orbit, allowing their space program to survive the decommissioning of the ISS. Further, Moscow claims that by 2030, it will have its own modular space station in a high-inclination polar orbit around the Earth. 

The Americans, meanwhile, have no real plans for maintaining a strategic presence in Earth orbit, let alone going beyond that.

Some have speculated that the Americans will move away from a NASA-centric model of human spaceflight and toward a commercial model—especially when it comes to space station operations. These would be privately built and operated stations that NASA merely rents from the private space firms that build them. 

Could America Privatize Low-Earth Orbit?

There are several private space firms that are competing for top billing in this new private space economy in low Earth orbit (LEO). Among them are the Axiom Space Station, which would involve initial modules attaching to the ISS—and eventually turning those Axiom modules into a standalone space station once the ISS was officially retired. 

Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin has a plan for what it describes as a “business park in space,” known as “Orbital Reef.” This station is backed not only by Bezos’ Blue Origin, but the dynamic private space startup is partnered with the likes of Boeing and Sierra Space to establish a permanent, private foothold in Earth orbit. Lockheed Martin, Airbus, and Voyager Space have also aligned to build a single-launch commercial space station designed for science and tourism known as “Starlab.”

Here’s the problem, though. If there are any delays in the launching of these private space stations—and there likely will be—then the US will struggle to maintain its competitive advantage in Earth orbit. A gap in America’s manned LEO presence could set the manned spaceflight program back for years, at a time when the manned spaceflight programs of its rivals are proceeding at breakneck speed—and catching up to the Americans in the strategic high ground of space.

NASA Says It’s Focused on the Moon and Mars 

NASA is shifting its human spaceflight focus from LEO to the moon and Mars. Right now, the agency is planning for crewed lunar return missions, lunar base construction to support colonization of the lunar surface. They’re even talking about the wasteful Lunar Gateway Station. 

At the same time, NASA claims it is in the throes of preparing for a manned mission to Mars. So, they are rededicating their finite resources toward the creation of long-duration life-support systems, radiation research, and new propulsion technology.

The ISS used to consume half of NASA’s human spaceflight budget. Without it, we are led to believe that NASA can redirect billions to deep-space missions. Yet even these ambitious plans laid out by NASA have seen little to no real-world input by the troubled space agency. Instead, just as they are starting to do with the space station side of America’s manned spaceflight program, much of NASA’s plans rely heavily on private space startups, like SpaceX, to get them back to the moon or to land men and women on Mars.

An LEO Presence Is Vital for American National Security

Moving beyond LEO is a laudable focus for NASA. But completely abandoning it—at a time when both the Chinese and Russians are moving fast to dominate the strategic high ground—is short-sighted from a strategic viewpoint. Should the ISS be mothballed, and if there are any real delays with any of the proposed private space stations, that would leave China’s Tiangong space station as the only sovereign government-run space station in orbit.

What’s more, Beijing intends for Tiangong to host other nations—expanding China’s influence and prestige in space operations. 

The end of the ISS truly is the end of an era. When it was built in the 1990s, it was at the height of Russo-American relations. More than two decades later, as it faces the end of its storied life cycle, US-Russian relations are at their lowest point since the Cold War.

The passing of the ISS also means that NASA will be permanently reliant on mercurial private space firms. Again, the dawn of the private space economy is a welcome development in some ways. But NASA must take care to ensure it has some semblance of its own presence—a presence that represents all American taxpayers, not just the billionaires and soon-to-be-trillionaires—in orbit.