For decades, many analysts hoped that China’s rise would be peaceful—that a wealthier, more globally integrated Beijing would stabilize Asia, expand trade, and reduce conflict.

This was the assumption behind the U.S.–China engagement policy, ASEAN’s economic strategy, and the global push to bring China into major institutions like the WTO.

The idea was simple: a rising China, if embedded in rules and interdependence, would act as a responsible stakeholder.

But the Asia of 2025 tells a different story.

From the South China Sea to the Himalayas, from Taiwan to Japan’s waters, from Mongolia to Southeast Asia’s rivers, China’s behavior increasingly signals power projection, coercive diplomacy, and territorial ambition.

Instead of reducing tensions, China’s rise is now widely viewed as the primary source of instability in Asia.

The question is no longer theoretical; it is a lived experience for many countries.

So, is China’s growing power a threat to Asian stability? Increasingly, the evidence suggests yes—and the shift is driven by Beijing’s own strategic choices.

1. Militarized Expansion: China’s New Normal

One of the most destabilizing features of China’s rise is the increasing militarization of its foreign policy.

South China Sea: An Ocean Turned Military Zone

China has ignored international rulings—most notably the 2016 Permanent Court of Arbitration decision—and continues to build artificial islands, deploy missiles, and harass Southeast Asian vessels. Philippine fishermen have been sprayed with water cannons, Vietnamese survey ships have been blocked, and Malaysian drilling operations have been shadowed by Chinese warships.

This militarization undermines:

• Freedom of navigation

• International maritime law

• ASEAN unity

• Regional trust

Instead of contributing to peace through shared maritime management, China has created a zone of intimidation, pushing smaller nations to seek U.S. military protection they once avoided.

Taiwan: The Most Dangerous Flashpoint

Daily Chinese military aircraft cross Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, and Beijing’s rhetoric has shifted from “peaceful reunification” to open warnings of forced annexation. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) now conducts blockade simulations and amphibious assault drills on a routine basis.

This has elevated the risk of:

• Accidental conflict

• Blockade of key semiconductor supply lines

• U.S.–China direct military confrontation

Taiwan is no longer a distant political issue—it is now the heart of global insecurity in East Asia.

Japan: Harassment in the East China Sea

Japan, once optimistic about economic engagement with China, now faces:

• Armed Chinese coast guard ships entering Japanese waters near Senkaku Islands

• A record number of PLA aircraft approaching Japanese airspace

• Beijing’s military cooperation with Russia, including joint bomber patrols near Hokkaido

Instead of cooperative coexistence, Japan sees a militarily assertive neighbor pushing to rewrite post-WWII regional norms.

2. Economic Leverage as a Weapon

China’s rise has also come with an increasing use of economic coercion.

Punitive Trade Sanctions

Countries that oppose China’s political positions often face sudden economic retaliation:

• South Korea suffered massive economic losses after deploying the THAAD missile defense system.

• Australia faced tariffs on wine, barley, beef, and coal after calling for a COVID-19 origins investigation.

• Mongolia was punished for allowing the Dalai Lama’s visit in 2016.

• The Philippines was economically threatened during the Scarborough Shoal standoff.

This pattern signals that Beijing’s economic power is not stabilizing the region—it is being weaponized.

Debt and Dependency

Many Asian countries—Laos, Cambodia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka—are becoming deeply indebted to Chinese infrastructure loans. Instead of mutually beneficial development, this has produced:

• Strategic dependence

• Loss of political autonomy

• Control of key assets (e.g., Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port)

Countries that are economically vulnerable cannot negotiate security or political issues freely. This shifts Asia toward a Sinocentric sphere of influence, not a cooperative economic community.

3. Ideological Export: A Regional Model?

China is also attempting to reshape political norms in Asia.

While Beijing claims it does not export ideology, its actions suggest otherwise:

• Promoting authoritarian governance as an alternative model

• Exporting surveillance technology for political control

• Supporting regimes that align with Chinese interests regardless of democracy or human rights issues

This challenges the existing values of:

• Political pluralism

• Press freedom

• Rule of law

Countries like Cambodia and Myanmar have increasingly aligned with Beijing, creating a bloc of authoritarian partners that reduce collective regional security.

4. Environmental and Resource Conflicts

China’s rise has significant environmental implications, often ignored in geopolitical analysis.

Mekong River Control

China has built dams along the upper Mekong, controlling water flow into Southeast Asian nations like:

• Laos

• Thailand

• Cambodia

• Vietnam

This affects agriculture, fisheries, and livelihoods for millions. Rather than cooperative water management, Beijing’s unilateral actions create ecological instability.

Himalayan Rivers

India and Bangladesh fear similar outcomes as China constructs dams on rivers flowing from Tibet.

Environmental insecurity becomes geopolitical insecurity.

5. Regional Response: Rising Fear, Rising Alliances

A stable region does not trigger defensive coalitions. Yet China’s behavior has produced exactly that.

Quad Revival

India, Japan, Australia, and the U.S. have strengthened the Quad, conducting joint military exercises.

ASEAN Alignment Shift

Countries like Vietnam and the Philippines have pivoted closer to the U.S., openly challenging China’s maritime claims.

Japan and South Korea Reconciliation

Even long-time rivals Japan and South Korea are cooperating more closely in security matters, driven partly by China’s assertiveness.

India’s Military Modernization

After deadly clashes with Chinese forces in the Himalayas, India has accelerated deployment of troops, infrastructure, and strategic missiles along the border.

When a rising power drives all its neighbors to rearm and form alliances, that power is not seen as a stabilizer—it is seen as a threat.

6. Why China’s Rise Is Viewed as Destabilizing

China could have risen peacefully—many nations hoped it would. But its policies reveal core patterns:

• Territorial expansion through coercion

• Contempt for international law

• Weaponized economics

• Militarization of disputed areas

• Authoritarian influence-building

A country that combines military power with political centralization and revanchist nationalism inevitably triggers fear.

Peace is built on trust.

Trust is built on predictable, lawful, cooperative behavior.

China’s current strategy delivers the opposite: coercion, unpredictability, and unilateralism.

A Threat, Not a Stabilizer

China’s rise could have been a foundation for peace, prosperity, and regional cooperation. Instead, Beijing’s strategic choices have made it the most destabilizing force in Asia today.

The question, “Is China’s rising power a threat?” is increasingly answered by:

• Japan’s increased defense spending

• Vietnam’s rapid naval modernization

• India’s hardened border posture

• The Philippines inviting back U.S. forces

• ASEAN nations quietly preparing for conflict scenarios

China’s actions—rather than its rise itself—are what drive regional instability.

A rising power is not inherently dangerous.
A rising power seeking dominance is.

Asia does not fear China’s strength; it fears China’s intentions.

And until Beijing demonstrates a consistent commitment to international law, sovereignty, and peaceful coexistence, its rise will remain a source of tension, resistance, and strategic anxiety—not a contributor to regional peace.