Democrats seem to think replacing the 81-year-old Joe Biden will be quick and simple. They should be careful what they wish for.

Campaigning against Donald Trump is like sticking your hand into a wood chipper. Just one man has pulled his hand back out intact. Biden is the only politician from either party to have defeated Trump since 2016.

“Running for president is extremely challenging,” Sarah Matthews, who worked for the Trump administration, told me. “Then there’s the daunting reality of running against Trump, who has proven he’s willing to say and do almost anything. Even for a politically savvy candidate, facing a pathological liar is a unique challenge.”

Think about it. If “Crooked” Hillary Clinton couldn’t beat him, could Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan? What suggests that Gov. J.B. Pritzker of Illinois could do what Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida could not? Jeb was born to be president, only to be reduced to a “low energy” nepo baby. The nicknames, the insults, the lies: Trump doesn’t need oppo research. He invents his own.

I could see the case for Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky and Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona—in a normal world. As you may have noticed, the world we live in is anything but normal. They stand no chance.

Gina Raimondo left the Allen conference in Sun Valley the emerging darling of the donor class. She’s Harvard educated and handled the coronavirus well as Governor of Rhode Island. As commerce secretary, she has shown an enthusiasm for working with the private sector that is becoming rare in the party of Bernie Sanders. But she last won an election in 2018, in the Rhode Island gubernatorial race, against the mayor of Cranston.

“No matter who the Democratic nominee is, Trump is a formidable opponent. Anyone who thinks this will be a cakewalk if only we choose this nominee or that one clearly doesn’t remember 2016,” a senior Democratic strategist told me.

Let’s say it’s Vice President Kamala Harris. That’s what the Trump campaign is counting on. “Anyone else is pure fantasy,” a Trump operative told me. “They aren’t going to skip over her.” But that just means she could end up as the Democrats’ sacrificial lamb. We already know Trump’s nickname for Laffin’ Kamala.

Trump lulls you into thinking that he is easy to beat, when he is anything but. Just ask Ron DeSantis, once hailed as the future of the Republican Party. As with “Lyin’” Ted Cruz and Little Marco Rubio there was the inevitably devastating nickname—“Meatball Ron”—followed by a ruthless distortion of his record as governor of Florida. Not only that, but Trump managed to make us revel in his cruelties. DeSantis was mocked in the Republican primary by the very same pundits who’d been singing his praises until Trump reappeared.

I’m already dreading the attacks Pritzker will face, as the scion of a wealthy Jewish family (that supports trans rights, no less). What will Trump say of California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s marriage to former Fox News anchor (and now his son Don’s fiancée) Kimberly Guilfoyle?

Oh, and remember Whitmer’s husband trying to use his position to evade lockdowns to go boating? If you forgot about that episode, the Trump campaign will helpfully remind you.

And they will go lower. Whitmer has defended Michigan’s large population of Muslims and Arab-Americans from Islamophobic attacks. Run that through the MAGA spin machine and you will have “extremism experts” solemnly telling Laura Ingraham that the governor is a member of Hamas.

Polls offer potential replacements false confidence. They are hypotheticals, while Trump is anything but. Whoever replaces Biden will have no room for error. Quick, Mayor Pete, what do you think about fracking in Oklahoma? And are you also in Hamas?

Sticking with Biden is not a great option, but doing so at least protects the new generation from a MAGA mauling. Trump’s interminable RNC address on Thursday night made it seem like he may be easy to beat. But so far, the only man to have done so is the guy they are calling a has-been, Joe Biden.

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