Members of the Druze minority attend a memorial ceremony, Monday, July 29, 2024, for the 12 children and teens, killed in a rocket strike at a soccer field over the weekend in the village of Majdal Shams, in the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights. Two days after the attack questions remain about why it happened and who is responsible.

 Two days after a rocket slammed into a soccer field in the Israel-controlled Golan Heights, killing 12 children, many questions remain about the attack on the Druze town of Majdal Shams.

Israel accused Hezbollah in Lebanon of deliberately targeting civilians, while the Lebanese militant group quickly issued a rare denial of any responsibility for the attack.

With Israel vowing retaliation for what was the highest civilian death toll in Israel-held territory since Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on southern Israel, diplomats rushed to prevent an escalation that could spiral into an all-out war after months of exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah over the Lebanese-Israeli border.

Weapons experts told The Associated Press that evidence points to a rocket from Lebanon hitting the field. But they raised the possibility that the hit on civilians was an accident.

Here’s what we know and what remains unclear about the attack.

The strike

The strike left a crater about 2 meters (yards) wide, breaking through the carpet of artificial grass where the children were playing. Around it were scattered burned-out bicycles and scooters, some electric bikes with their batteries melted. Walls of a nearby tent and shelter were pockmarked from shrapnel.

The Israeli military’s Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said an Iranian-made Falaq rocket with a 53-kilogram (117-pound) warhead belonging to Hezbollah was used in the attack that landed in the town of over 11,000 inhabitants.

Israel released images of rocket fragments it said the military found, with visible lettering that matched pictures of Falaq rockets also provided by the military. The AP was unable to verify that the fragments were found on-site. No ordinance debris was visible when AP reporters visited the site on Monday.

The Israeli military was investigating why its renowned missile defense system called Iron Dome did not intercept the rocket.

While Iron Dome’s radar detected the launch, it did not release an interceptor missile to knock down the rocket, an Israeli military official told the AP, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the matter.

The military said the flight time may have been too brief. The rocket was fired from just north of the Lebanese town of Chebaa, about 10 kilometers (6 miles) from Majdal Shams, it said. Hezbollah has experimented with launching rockets from a shorter distance.

The Iron Dome alert set off sirens at 6:18 p.m. Majdal Shams’ local council reported the rocket landed less than a minute later, leaving no chance for the children to run to shelters.

“At very short distance, you don’t have enough time to operate the Iron Dome,” said Yehoshua Kalisky, a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, a Tel Aviv think tank. It's nearly impossible to intercept rockets fired from within 5 kilometers (3 miles) that take 2-3 seconds to reach their destination, he said.

As a result, the interception rate along the northern border is considerably lower than in central Israel, where Iron Dome batteries have more time, he said.

Hezbollah's denial

Hezbollah, the most powerful paramilitary and political force in Lebanon, was quick to say it was not behind the attack, a rare denial from a group that normally claims every attack launched.

What Hezbollah would gain from attacking a Druze community is unclear. Many Druze in the Golan see themselves as citizens of Syria, where the government in Damascus is a Hezbollah ally. A strike on them could hurt the militant group’s standing — including with Druze in Lebanon — when it's trying to keep support in the war.

An overt intentional strike on civilians would also be a dramatic escalation in Hezbollah’s near daily exchanges with Israel. The group’s officials have said they don't aim to expand the war and will halt their strikes when a cease-fire is reached in Gaza.

In the thousands of rockets it has fired since October, Hezbollah has insisted it targets military and intelligence installations. Still, Hezbollah rockets have hit civilian areas. Before Saturday’s bloodshed, strikes had killed 13 civilians and 22 soldiers in Israel. In Lebanon. Israel’s attacks have killed more than 500 people, including 90 civilians.

Just before news of Saturday's deadly attack emerged, Hezbollah claimed at least two strikes, using Katyusha rockets and the larger Falaq-1, targeting an Israeli military base on Mount Hermon, about 3 kilometers (2 miles) north of Majdal Shams.

A small militant faction allied with Hezbollah that also operates from southern Lebanon, often from near Chebaa, also denied responsibility for the attack. Hezbollah-allied media questioned whether Israel was looking for an excuse to widen the war amid the most serious push yet to reach a cease-fire in Gaza.

Was it an error?

From satellite images, pictures and videos from the scene and analysis of previous launches, experts said the evidence fits with a rocket attack.

“The evidence that we can see from the ground ... is much more consistent with that of a rocket artillery of the type and size of the Falaq,” said Richard Weir, crisis and weapons researcher with Human Rights Watch.

The warhead would explode on impact with a deadly high explosive load, spraying irregular-shaped fragments.

Dr. Ran Steinberg, chief of Pediatric Surgery at Rambam Hospital who took part in treating children wounded in the blast, told the AP that irregular, jagged pieces of shrapnel were removed from their bodies.

Weir said the damage did not appear consistent with the scenario of a hit by an air defense missile that malfunctioned. Such missiles are designed to disperse regular-shaped fragments in every direction, and there was no sign of such fragmentation.

The shape of the crater and the direction a fence was blown down indicate that the rocket came from the north, said Chris Cobb-Smith, a weapons analyst.

He said that without independent verification of the munition's remnants it is impossible to say who is to blame.

Weir said a Hezbollah rocket aimed at the military position on Mount Hermon may have overshot its target, landing in Majdal Shams. He said any number of mistakes could have taken place, including a mechanical fault or human error in estimating the distance.

“These kinds of things happen even with the best trained forces, he said. “So it is possible that, given that this is an unguided piece of rocket, that this was a mistake.”

The Druze stance

After Israel blamed Hezbollah for the blast, many Druze leaders in Lebanon, Syria and Israel spoke out against what they called an attempt to drive a wedge within the close-knit community. Followers of the Druze faith, which began as an offshoot of Shiite Islam, are divided between the three countries.

Some 300 Majdal Shams residents protested a visit by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday, shouting that he was exploiting the bloodshed for political gain.

Only 20% of residents in Majdal Shams, part of the Golan Heights annexed by Israel in 1981, have accepted Israeli citizenship. Many still consider themselves citizens of Syria.

“For sure, it was not targeting Majdal Shams. There are many Israeli military bases around the town. I expect this threat was heading their way,” said Nabeeh Abu Saleh, a paramedic from the town who rushed to the scene of the attack on Saturday.

Nothing prepared Abu Saleh, who has 25 years of experience as a paramedic, for what he saw. Some body parts were found 100 meters (yards) from the explosion. One of his nephews was killed, another wounded.

The military said Iron Dome sirens have gone off in Majdal Shams 30 times during the conflict. A few months ago, a rocket landed short of the town, Abu Saleh said.

“We buried our children. We don’t want retaliation," he said. “We have families in Lebanon, in Syria, and we have brothers here in Israel.”

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World Awaits Israel’s Response To Deadly Hezbollah Rocket Attack That Hit Soccer Field

With tensions in the region already sky-high, the world is bracing for the anticipated Israeli response to Saturday’s deadly Hezbollah rocket attack that hit a neighborhood soccer field in the Golan Heights.

“Our response will come, and it will be severe,” Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said Monday while laying a wreath honoring the 12 children and teens killed Saturday and wounded nearly 20 others in the attack on the pitch in the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights. Israel has occupied that strategically important high ground since the 1967 Six-Day War. The attack was so sudden people didn’t have a chance to seek cover, with a bomb shelter being just feet from the impact crater. Hezbollah denies responsibility while Israel and the U.S. say it was their rocket.

Israel has already responded, albeit in a relatively limited manner.

Early Sunday morning local time, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) carried out airstrikes into Lebanon, some hitting targets about 100 miles north of the so-called Blue Line, the UN-drawn border between Israel and Lebanon. Though further than the usual strikes, they were orders of magnitude less intense than what could be in the works.

“Overnight, the [Israeli Air Force] IAF struck a series of Hezbollah terror targets both deep inside Lebanese territory and in southern Lebanon,” the IDF said Sunday on its Telegram channel. Those targets included “weapons caches and terrorist infrastructure in the areas of Chabriha, Borj El Chmali, and Beqaa, Kfarkela, Rab El Thalathine, Khiam, and Tayr Harfa.”

There were some indications on Monday that Israel may stop short of a full-on invasion of Lebanon.

“Israel also estimates that while several days of fighting may follow the strike, the move would still be a ‘limited’ one only, the Israeli Yedioth Ahronoth news outlet reported.

Israel wants to hurt Hezbollah but not drag the Middle East into all-out war, two Israeli officials told Reuters.

Two other Israeli officials said Israel was preparing for the possibility of a few days of fighting in the wake of the soccer pitch attack, the publication reported.

“The estimation is that the response will not lead to an all-out war,” said the diplomatic source. “That would not be in our interest at this point.”

Meanwhile, an official with Hezbollah told The Associated Press that the group has started moving precision-guided missiles but doesn’t want a full-blown war with Israel. The group possesses a far more potent arsenal than what it has shown so far.

Speaking to reporters on Monday, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby downplayed talk of a wider conflict as a result of the Madjal Shams attack.

“We’ve all heard about this all-out war scenario now multiple points over the last 10 months,” said Kirby. “Those predictions were exaggerated, then, quite frankly, we think they’re exaggerated now.”

Israel, he added, “has every right to respond. It was Hezbollah that started firing on Israel way back in October. And I think we need to keep that in mind. But nobody wants a broader war. And I’m confident that we’ll be able to avoid such an outcome.”

On Monday, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with his Israeli counterpart, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. He condemned the rocket attack and “reaffirmed his unwavering commitment to Israel’s security and the right of self-defense.”

The U.S. is leading diplomatic efforts to rein in Israel, urging it not to strike Beirut, Dahiyeh, or Lebanese civilian infrastructure, Reuters reported. Beirut is a command and control and logistics hub for Hezbollah, which controls part of that area.

The State Department on Sunday warned U.S. citizens to consider alternate ways to get out of Lebanon should things escalate.

“The U.S. Embassy calls U.S. citizens’ attention to the fact that amid heightened tension in the region, some airlines are adjusting their flight schedules in Lebanon,” the embassy said. “Middle East Airlines (MEA) has announced that some flights originally due to land in Beirut on the evening of July 28 will now land on the morning of July 29. Other airlines are reportedly considering temporary alterations to their flight plans as well. The Embassy encourages U.S. citizens traveling to or from Lebanon to monitor their flight status closely, to be aware that itineraries could change with little or no warning, and to make alternate plans.”

The Middle East has been in a heightened state of alert since the Oct. 7 sneak attack by Hamas on Israel, which responded with deadly airstrikes and a ground offensive in Gaza. The attack on Israel killed nearly 1,200 Israelis and resulted in scores of hostages being taken. Thousands of Palestinians have been killed in its aftermath.

The Lebanon-based Hezbollah quickly joined the fight, albeit in a restrained manner, repeatedly attacking Israel with spurts of missiles, rockets, and drones. In turn, Israel has carried out repeated strikes on the group’s targets in Lebanon.

So far, the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has largely been limited to northern Israel and southern Lebanon, where citizens on both sides of the border have been forced to evacuate.

This latest incident, however, threatens to engulf the entire region, with Iran saying its proxies in Iraq and Syria could join the fight should Israel invade Lebanon.

“We warn ‘Israel’ against any adventure against Lebanon under the pretext of the Majdal Shams incident,” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani said Sunday, according to the Hezbollah-connected Al Mayadeen Telegram channel. “The Zionist entity is primarily responsible for the unexpected consequences of such foolish behavior.”

Israel is walking a fine line in its planning of a response to Saturday’s attack. Their predicament, according to current and former security officials who spoke with The Washington Post, “is how to answer the attack without leaving Hezbollah with no choice but to escalate in turn — which might draw Iran more directly into the fight,” the publication reported. “The Israeli military keeps a range of target scenarios on the shelf, regularly updated with new intelligence, according to a military official who described readiness planning to The Washington Post on a visit to the border zone in the spring.”

On Sunday, Israel’s Security Cabinet authorized Netanyahu and Gallant “to decide on the manner and timing of the response against the Hezbollah terrorist organization,” Netanyahu announced on Twitter.

Meanwhile, on Monday, the tit-for-tat battle between Israel and Hezbollah continued.

“This morning, approximately 20 projectiles that were identified crossing from Lebanon fell in an open area adjacent to the Goma Junction in northern Israel,” the IDF said Monday on Telegram. “No injuries were reported, and in accordance with protocol, no sirens were sounded.”

Several minutes later, “the IAF struck and destroyed the launcher used to fire the projectiles toward northern Israel in the area of Houla in southern Lebanon,” IDF stated. “Furthermore, a short while ago the IAF struck Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure in the area of Kfarhamam from which projectiles were fired toward Har Dov. Additional terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon was struck over the past day. In addition, a Hezbollah terrorist cell that was identified operating in the area of Meiss El Jabal was eliminated by the IAF.”

Beyond the potential for large-scale civilian casualties in both Israel and Lebanon should the IDF launch a full-scale ground invasion, such an action could also drag Iran as well as the U.S. into the fray. That’s a major reason the Biden administration is working hard to limit Israel’s response.

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'It was their rocket': U.S. blames Hezbollah for attack that killed 12 children and teens

The White House said Monday the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah was responsible for the weekend rocket attack that killed 12 children and teenagers in the Golan Heights.

"It was their rocket. It was launched from an area that they control," White House national security spokesman John Kirby said.

Hezbollah has denied any role in the attack, which happened Saturday when a rocket slammed into a soccer field in the Israeli-controlled Golan. The attack has escalated tensions along the Israeli-Lebanese border and raised fears of a wider war in the Middle East.

Israel also blamed Hezbollah for the attack and has threatened to retaliate, although the United States has urged restraint.

Kirby said the U.S. supports Israel's right to defend itself. But he said the Biden administration believes "there's still time and space for a diplomatic solution."

"It's Hezbollah that started firing on Israel way back in October. And I think we need to keep that in mind," he said. "But nobody wants a broader war, and I'm confident that we'll be able to avoid such an outcome."

The U.S. has been in contact with Israel and Lebanon and will continue to support efforts to reach a diplomatic solution, Kirby said.

The U.S. is leading a diplomatic dash to deter Israel from striking Lebanon's capital Beirut or major civil infrastructure in response to the attack, Reuters reported, citing five unnamed sources who are familiar with the effort.

The focus of the high-speed diplomacy has been to constrain Israel's response by urging it against targeting densely populated Beirut, the southern suburbs of the city that form Hezbollah's heartland, or key infrastructure like airports and bridges, Reuters said. The news agency said its sources include Lebanese and Iranian officials, plus Middle Eastern and European diplomats.

Hezbollah is the most powerful of Iran's network of regional proxy groups and has claimed allegiance to Palestinians in Gaza. The group has been trading fire with the Israeli military across Lebanon's southern border since the Gaza war erupted last October.

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