Attacks by Israel, Hezbollah could fuel Mideast war. Or could they ease tensions?

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Iran-backed Hezbollah militants and the Israeli military traded massive aerial attacks Sunday as violence along the Israeli-Lebanese border reached ominous new heights.

Three deaths were confirmed in Lebanon. Israel said one member of its navy was killed and two wounded. The attacks came as negotiators met in Cairo for struggling talks aimed at reaching a cease-fire agreement between Israel and Iran-backed Hamas amid global concerns the war in Gaza could expand into Lebanon and explode across the region.

Israel and Hezbollah, however, indicated they did not want a full-blown war in Lebanon, and some experts said Sunday's powerful strikes could calm the rising tensions in the short term.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said the attack was in retaliation for the assassination on July 30 of high-ranking Hezbollah figure Fuad Shukr. He said his forces fired 340 Katyusha rockets to overwhelm the Iron Dome system and penetrate Israel's defenses, though a U.S. official said the Hezbollah attack appeared to involve far fewer rockets.

"A hasty reaction could have led to failure," Nasrallah said in an address televised in Lebanon, adding that "we chose to wait to allow for the possibility of successful negotiations in Gaza."

Israel said it had learned of the attack in advance and sent more than 100 jets out to hammer Hezbollah positions and thwart a larger attack. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a warning to Nasrallah and Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that "what we did today is another step toward changing the situation" along the Israeli-Lebanese border.

"Israel is hitting Hezbollah with surprising, crushing blows," Netanyahu said. "Three weeks ago we eliminated its chief of staff (Shukr). Today we foiled its attack plan."

Nasrallah described the Israeli narrative on the day's events as "riddled with lies reflecting their perceived strength as the most powerful army in the region. Their resort to deception is a clear sign of their weakening position.”

An official property surveyor assesses the damage to a residential building following a direct-hit from a projectile after Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets and drones toward Israel on Aug. 25, 2024.
An official property surveyor assesses the damage to a residential building following a direct-hit from a projectile after Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets and drones toward Israel on Aug. 25, 2024.

Developments:

∎ Videos posted to social media showed Israeli interceptor missiles being launched to counter the attack.

∎ Restrictions were ordered for civilians from Tel Aviv to the Lebanese border that limited gatherings to no more than 30 people outdoors and 300 people indoors. Beaches were also closed near the border.

Could attack, response ease tensions?

Former Israeli Intelligence official and regional analyst Avi Melamed said the measured statements issued by both sides after the attacks will probably bring relative calm to the region and "an end to the anxious period of waiting for rounds of retaliatory strikes" that could have fueled an all-out war in Lebanon. Hezbollah's strike plan and targets would have been approved by Iran, Melamed said.

"Hezbollah's retaliation fell short of its supporters’ expectations," Melamed said in an email to USA TODAY. "But most of all, the strike and messaging sent a louder message to Yahya Sinwar's Hamas that the expanded regional war Sinwar has been hoping for ... isn’t likely to happen."

Melamed said the U.S. was likely notified by Israel in advance of its preemptive strike, and Israel's Channel 2 reported the U.S. was provided such notice. Lt. Gen. Keith Kellogg, who served as a national security adviser under former President Donald Trump, lauded the Israeli strike, saying it likely kept Hezbollah from launching "thousands and thousands" of missiles at Israel.

"So (what) the Israelis have done actually is reset deterrence in the region and I think it's smart," Kellogg said on Fox News Sunday "And I think it's put Hezbollah ... on their back foot."

Kellogg noted that Iran had not "done anything at all" as the violence unfolded Sunday. A current U.S. official, who was not authorized to speak publicly, told USA TODAY there were no signs that an attack on Israel from Iran was forthcoming.

Iran has promised a retaliatory response to Israel’s apparent killing of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, in Tehran on July 31.

Hamas rejects deal, accuses Israel of backtracking

Hamas accused Israel of imposing new conditions as it rejected the latest U.S.-brokered truce proposal Sunday, again sinking hopes for a cease-fire in Gaza and the release of hostages in the immediate future.

The militant group said Israel has gone back on its commitment to pull troops out of the Philadelphi Corridor on the Gaza border with Egypt and is insisting on new demands, such as screening Palestinians returning home to the northern part of the territory.

"We will not accept discussions about retractions from what we agreed to on July 2 or new conditions," Hamas official Osama Hamdan said.

Control over two passageways − the Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors, the latter crossing east to west near the middle of the Gaza Strip − has been among the biggest obstacles to a truce. It also appears to be a point of contention among Israeli leadership.

Reuters reported Sunday that Netanyahu has clashed with his negotiators about making concessions regarding the Israeli military presence in the Philadelphi area, which the prime minister refuses to give up. Netanyahu has harshly criticized the negotiating team's compromises, Israel's Channel 12 reported.

Expert questions 'bridging deal'

The Cairo talks are centered around a "bridging cease-fire" proposal from the Biden administration that in recent weeks had mediators hopeful a deal could be reached. Mehran Kamrava, a professor of government at Georgetown University in Qatar, is skeptical.

"A bridging cease-fire deal appears to be more diplomatic speak and largely void of substance," Kamrava said in an email to USA TODAY, adding that the Biden administration is "keen to have a cease-fire deal, not so much out of concern for the plight of Palestinians but due to domestic political considerations."

US official disputes number of rockets fired at Israel

Hezbollah said it hit 11 military targets in what it called the first phase of its retaliation. A Hezbollah official told Reuters the retaliation was calibrated to avoid triggering a full-scale war.

Israeli military spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said more than 100 Israeli planes attacked targets across southern Lebanon.

“Our air defense systems, Navy ships and Air Force planes are protecting the country’s skies, identifying and intercepting threats and striking anywhere in Lebanon where it is necessary to remove threats and hit Hezbollah,” he said.

US remains committed to Israel's defense

The Pentagon has built a robust force in the Middle East over the last several weeks as Iran and its proxy forces, including Hezbollah, have threatened attacks on Israel.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III spoke with Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant to discuss Israel’s defense against the Hezbollah attacks. Austin reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to Israel’s defense against any attacks by Iran and its regional partners and proxies, Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said.

President Joe Biden was being updated on events by national security adviser Jake Sullivan, the White House said.

Israel says it doesn't want full-scale war in Lebanon

Expectations of an escalation had risen since a missile strike in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights last month killed 12 young people, and the assassination of Shukr in Beirut that followed. Israel's security cabinet met early Sunday, and Gallant declared a state of emergency.

Foreign Minister Israel Katz said Israel would respond to developments on the ground but did not seek a full-scale war in Lebanon. Tens of thousands of Israeli residents have been evacuated from the Israeli side of the Lebanese border for months because of the uptick in violence.

"We are determined to do everything possible to defend our country, to return the residents of the north safely to their homes and to continue to uphold a simple rule: Whoever harms us – we harm him," Netanyahu said.

Some flights suspended as tensions rise

Flights to and from Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv were suspended for around 90 minutes on Sunday.

Some flights to and from Beirut were also halted, stranding passengers. "I just want to get out of here by any means possible," said Rana Saade, a Lebanese woman living in New Jersey.

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