Russia faces "difficult fight" to retake Ukraine-held area, says top US spy

Russian President Vladimir Putin will mount a counteroffensive to try to retake territory in the Kursk region captured by Ukrainian troops, but Russian forces will encounter "a difficult fight," Deputy CIA Director David Cohen said on Wednesday.
Cohen told a national security industry conference that the significance of the Ukrainian incursion, which has overrun some 300 square miles (777 square km) of the Russian province, remained to be seen.
Ukrainian forces crashed through Russia's western border into the Kursk region on Aug. 6 in a surprise offensive that is continuing.
While Kyiv has said it has no intention of annexing the area it has captured, Ukrainian troops are building defensive lines and it appears that they intend to retain "some of that territory for some period of time," Cohen told the Intelligence and National Security Summit.
"We can be certain that Putin will mount a counteroffensive to try to reclaim that territory," Cohen said. "I think our expectation is that that will be a difficult fight for the Russians."
Putin, he said, "is not only going to have to face the fact that there is a front line now within Russian territory that he's going to have to deal with, he has to deal with reverberations back in his own society that they have lost a piece of Russian territory."
Ukraine's success in Kursk "has the potential to change the dynamic" of the conflict "a little bit going forward," he continued without elaborating.
Ukraine has claimed the capture of 100 settlements in its incursion into Russia's Kursk region, while Russian forces continue to inch forward in the eastern Donetsk region.
Cohen said that Russia has been making those gains "at extraordinary cost" in troops and equipment and "may or may not" capture the key Ukrainian logistics hub city of Pokrovsk.
"But at the end of the day, none of it is a game changer in a strategic sense" for the Russians, he continued.
On Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the war with Russia would eventually end in dialogue, but that Kyiv had to be in a strong position and that he would present a plan to U.S. President Joe Biden and his two potential successors.
Putin has said any deal needs to start with Ukraine's acceptance of "realities on the ground," that would leave Russia with possession of substantial chunks of four Ukrainian regions as well as Crimea.
Ukraine says it controls more than 1,200 square km (463 square miles) of the Kursk region.
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Ukraine takes 100 Russian settlements in Kursk as Zelensky vows revenge for airstrikes.
Ukraine claims to have taken control of 100 settlements in Russia’s Kursk region during its surprise cross-border assault – while facing massive airstrikes from Russian forces for the second day running.
Kyiv’s top military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said his troops now control 1,294 sq km (500 sq m) of Russian territory in Kursk with up to 594 Russian prisoners of war taken.
Three weeks ago, Russia was caught by surprise in neighbouring Kursk region when thousands of Ukrainian soldiers punched through the border in an unprecedented move.
Colonel General Syrskyi said Kyiv’s objective of distracting Russian troops by pulling them back from eastern Ukrainian regions like the Donbas had been successful.
However, Col Gen Syrskyi also warned Moscow was building up its forces on the eastern frontline, around the important logistics hub of Pokrovsk, where Russian troops have been advancing.
In remarks broadcast on television, he said by video link that Russia was trying to disrupt Ukraine’s supply lines to the front near Pokrovsk.
“The situation on the Pokrovsk front is fairly difficult. The enemy is using its advantage in personnel, weapons and military equipment; it is actively using artillery and aviation,” he said.
It comes after at least five people were killed as Russia launched another major wave of missile and drone attacks on Ukraine just a day after Moscow’s biggest air attack since the war began.
Two people were killed when a hotel was “wiped out” in the central Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih and two others died in drone attacks on the city of Zaporizhzhia in southern Ukraine, officials said.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky vowed to take revenge. “We will undoubtedly respond to Russia for this and all other attacks. Crimes against humanity cannot go unpunished,” Mr Zelensky said.
Meanwhile, Moscow’s officials claimed Ukrainian troops had also attempted another cross-border attack into Belgorod, a region of Russia that borders Kursk.
Belgorod’s regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said the situation on the border with Ukraine was “difficult but under control” after claiming hundreds of Ukrainian troops attacked at least one checkpoint.
The claim has not been independently verified and Kyiv has not commented. A Russian military blog said there had been no major attempts to pierce the border.
On Monday, Russia launched more than 200 missiles and drones at Ukraine with up to seven people killed across the country.
The Russian strikes were delivered via some 100 Iran-made Shahed drones and roughly the same number of cruise and hypersonic missiles, Mr Zelensky said.
At a news conference on Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that Russia’s invasion would eventually end in dialogue, but that Kyiv had to be in a strong position and that he would present a plan to US President Joe Biden and his two potential successors.
Mr Zelensky said Kyiv’s three-week-old incursion into Russia’s Kursk region was part of that plan, but that it also comprised other steps on the economic and diplomatic fronts.
“The main point of this plan is to force Russia to end the war. And I want that very much [for it to be] fair for Ukraine,” he told reporters in Kyiv.
He did not elaborate further on the next steps, but said he would also discuss the plan with Democratic vice-president Kamala Harris and probably also with Republican Donald Trump, the two nominees for the US presidential election.
“There can be no compromises with Putin, dialogue today is in principle empty and meaningless because he does not want to end the war diplomatically,” Mr Zelensky said.
He said the offensive into the Kursk region had reduced the number of governments around the world calling for Ukraine to make compromises with Russia to end the war and give up swathes of territory.
Mr Zelensky also mocked Mr Putin, who he said was prioritising the capture of Ukrainian land over the defence of Russia’s own territory.
The Ukrainian leader also said that Kyiv was continuing to make progress on its domestic weapons production and that it had conducted its first test of a domestically produced ballistic missile.
Meanwhile, the head of the UN’s nuclear agency warned of the risk of a serious accident at a Russian nuclear plant because of fighting nearby between Russian and Ukrainian forces.
Rafael Grossi, director general at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), spoke after visiting the plant in Kursk. “The danger or possibility of a nuclear accident has emerged near here,” Mr Grossi said.
“We see the plant still operating, but at the same time, the fact that the plant is operating may get even more serious in terms of an eventual action against it,” he added. “When a plant is operating, the temperature is much higher, and if there was the case of an impact or something that could affect it, there would be serious consequences.”
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Russia has diverted 30,000 troops from Ukraine to defend Kursk, says Kyiv
Russia has diverted some 30,000 troops from the front lines in eastern Ukraine to the Kursk region, the top Ukrainian commander said Tuesday.
Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, said at a Ukrainian forum that the troops were moved from the front but did not clarify from which directions of eastern Ukraine.
He added the number of Russian troops being redeployed “is growing,” and the Kursk offensive is putting pressure on Moscow.
Ukraine has now claimed close to 500 square miles of Russian territory in Kursk, captured 100 settlements and taken 594 Russian prisoners, Syrskyi said.
The U.S. has also said there is evidence of Russian diverting troops from the front lines but has not provided any details on the redeployments.
Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters Monday the U.S. was in close communication with Kyiv on how Kursk fits into the “broader effort” to defend Ukraine.
“That’s a question that only the Ukrainians can answer,” he said. “We’ll continue to work with them to better understand their security assistance requirements and needs towards the broader strategic end state.”
One of the key objectives of Ukraine’s Aug. 6 incursion into Kursk was to divert troops from the front lines to ease up pressure there as Ukrainian forces defend against a Russian push in the eastern Donetsk region.
But Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed not to halt the offensive in Donetsk or to distract from the Kremlin’s objectives there, and Russian forces are continuing to push ahead on the front lines.
The Donetsk towns of Pokrovsk and Toretsk remain under intense pressure, and Russian troops closing in have forced evacuations. Seizing those cities will cement Russia’s foothold in the eastern Donbas, made up of the Donetsk and neighboring Luhansk regions, and advance toward the twin cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
Syrskyi said Tuesday that Pokrovsk “is rather complex” with more than 50 skirmishes every 24 hours in the area.
“But the price they are paying is extremely high, our defense forces do everything to stop the advancement,” he said. “We are in full control of it and commanders are doing everything to stabilize the situation.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has also said another objective of the Kursk offensive is to create a buffer zone in Russia’s border region to protect Ukraine from attacks.
Zelensky said at the Tuesday forum that the “operation in the Kursk region is one of the points of Ukraine’s plan for victory in the war” and he would present a plan for victory to President Biden in a September meeting.
“The success of this plan depends on him. Whether they will give us what is in this plan or not,” Zelensky said, possibly referring to his call for the U.S. to allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons to hit deep into Russia.
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