Burned Ukrainian grains in Odesa port after the Russian missile attack.

The “grain deal” included 2 separate agreements with the United Nations: one by Russia, and one by Ukraine.

Ukraine’s agreement with the UN was to deliver grains for the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP – the largest humanitarian organisation in the world).

Russia also had its own agreement with the UN, as part of the “grain deal”: Russia was supposed to check the ships, before allowing them to pass to Ukrainian ports.

It is Russia’s part of the deal with the UN that was cancelled by Russia. Ukraine is happy to continue delivering on its deal with the UN.

It is the UN that decides where to send the grains through its Food Programme. Ukraine doesn’t make decisions about that.

Now Russia says, it will blow up the ships trying to navigate the Black Sea to or from Ukrainian ports, and won’t allow ships to pass.

What Russia wants to do by canceling the grain deal with the UN, is to make the delivery routes of Ukrainian grains expensive, so that the UN can’t buy cheap grains from Ukraine (becoming expensive because of logistics, delivering via other routes).

At the same time, Russia is promising free grains to African countries that support Russia in the UN – Russia calls it, “African solutions to African problems”.

(I am posting Putin’s explanation for African countries in the comments — a copy from Kremlin•ru.)

60 thousand tons of wheat were destroyed in Odesa port by Russia, along with 120 tons of other grains.

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Ukrainian exports of grain have been severely disrupted. For over 4 months, Russian military vessels blocked Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea.

On 22 July 2022, an agreement was brokered by the United Nations and Turkey to open a safe maritime humanitarian corridor in the Black Sea (the Black Sea Grain Initiative). Over 1,000 ships full of grain and other foodstuffs left Ukraine from 3 Ukrainian ports (Chornomorsk, Odesa and Yuzhny/Pivdennyi) during the implementation of the initiative.

In July 2023, Russia announced its decision to terminate the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

What has been exported so far?

As of July 2023, almost 33 million tonnes of grain and other foodstuffs had been exported via the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

Over 50% of the cargo was maize, the grain most affected by blockages in Ukrainian granaries at the beginning of the war. It had to be moved quickly to make space for wheat from the summer harvest.

What was exported through the Black Sea Grain Initiative?

Data as of 18 July 2023

Where was Ukrainian grain been shipped to?

65% of the wheat exported through the Black Sea Grain Initiative reached developing countries. Maize was exported almost equally to developed and developing countries.

Share of grain export by country wealth

The United Nations World Food Programme also shipped wheat from Black Sea ports.

As of July 2023, the programme had bought 80% of its grain stock from Ukraine, up from 50% before the war.

Over 725 000 tonnes of wheat left Ukrainian ports to Ethiopia, Yemen, Afghanistan, Sudan, Somalia, Kenya and Djibouti during the implementation of the initiative.

Share of export by commodity and destination

The EU is a major global producer and exporter of wheat. It is estimated that the EU exported 31 million tonnes of wheat in the marketing year 2022/23. Destination countries include Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, Pakistan and Nigeria.

How have food prices changed because of the war?

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused a significant increase in food prices on global markets. Grain prices have risen particularly sharply.

Both solidarity lanes (routes created by the EU to help Ukraine export its agricultural products, among other products) and the Black Sea Grain Initiative have notably contributed to lowering prices.

UN states that breaking the agreement threatens mass hunger. Grain prices went up immediately after the cancellation of the deal.

Ukraine is Russia's main competitor in the grain market. After bombing, the elevators and the port in Odessa, Russia began bombing Ukrainian ports on the Danube River. They are right on the border with NATO. Russia is not only destroying Ukraine’s economy, but as a racketeer putting the knife of hunger to the neck of the world, demanding to allow Russia to keep the territorial grabs in Ukraine, or else — millions of people will starve.

Keeping Ukrainian grain flowing remains crucial for global food security.

But for Russia, it’s all just a game of geopolitics.