Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, stands to gain from the fall of the Syrian regime.

Turkish-backed rebels claim to have seized a city in northern Syria from US-backed Kurdish militants.

In a separate offensive to the one that saw rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) sweep south and topple the regime of Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian National Army (SNA) said it had claimed Manbij from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

The loss, if confirmed, would be a significant blow for the SDF, as Manbij is its largest stronghold west of the Euphrates River. However, the SDF claimed the fighting there was still ongoing.

The Turkish-backed SNA, an umbrella term for several disparate groups, launched its “Dawn of Freedom” offensive on Dec 1.

The coalition said its intention was to restore security to the region, as the SDF is led militarily by the People’s Defence Units (YPG), which Turkey says is a terrorist organisation closely tied to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militant group.

The PKK has fought a decades-long insurgency against the Turkish state, with the role of Syria’s Kurds, who govern an autonomous region in the northeast, being a contentious topic for Ankara.

Turkey has firmly opposed any suggestion that Kurdish groups could be involved in shaping Syria’s future.

AfriPrime App link:  FREE to download...

https://www.amazon.com/Africircle-AfriPrime/dp/B0D2M3F2JT

Speaking to local media on Sunday, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s president, suggested that he and Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, were now the most significant world leaders, implying he also sees his future role as vital.

He said: “There are only two of us left among the leaders. Right now, it’s just me and Vladimir Putin.”

The transition of power in Damascus away from Assad, and his key allies Russia and Iran, is set to reshape the balance of power in the region, with Mr Erdogan probably emerging as a major beneficiary.

The SNA played a key role in the offensive, working alongside HTS, which began forming a new transitional Syrian government on Monday.

Mohammed al-Bashir, a key official in HTS’s Idlib administration, was appointed as prime minister.

 

Turkey’s security services are thought to have also co-ordinated with HTS, with Joe Biden, the US president, using Turkey as an intermediary to send secret messages to the group, The New York Times reported.

Analysts believe the Turkish president did not order the offensive but stands to gain politically and economically from his current position as the most influential foreign actor in Syria, despite the volatile situation.

Jerome Drevon, a senior analyst at the think tank Crisis Group, said: “Turkey did not expect this – It was not a plan … They would have feared that if the operation doesn’t go well, then it would result in massive bombings and more refugees coming across the border.

“It didn’t give a green light or a red light, more of a yellow light – do it, but be very careful.”

Turkey has supported Arab uprisings since 2011 and, even as Western powers abandoned the Syrian opposition, it provided arms, training and refuge to opposition fighters.

The country has weathered almost 14 years of instability across its southern border, suffering several Islamic State (IS) attacks and becoming home to the world’s largest refugee population.

The Kurdish-led SDF is backed by the US and was key to dismantling the IS caliphate. However, its future appears uncertain as a new order is carved out in Syria.

If the SDF were weakened, it would raise questions over the future of the IS prisons and camps it holds, including the al-Hol and Roj sites, which are home to tens of thousands of inmates.

Although many of them are women and children, the camps’ inhabitants have links to IS either as ideologues or its victims.

They include Shamima Begum, the British schoolgirl who travelled to Syria to join IS and was later stripped of her citizenship.

AfriPrime App link:  FREE to download...

https://www.amazon.com/Africircle-AfriPrime/dp/B0D2M3F2JT

Syrians return home after HTS rebels take over, Assad flees

AfriPrime App link:  FREE to download...

https://www.amazon.com/Africircle-AfriPrime/dp/B0D2M3F2JT