As the year draws to a close, Russia ramped up its air attacks on Ukraine, launching a wave of strikes on Christmas Day. The offensive targeted Ukraine’s critical infrastructure and urban centers using cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and drones. 

Russia’s Defence Ministry confirmed a “massive strike” on key facilities, claiming the attack ‘successfully’ hit all targets, which it said were crucial to Kyiv’s “military-industrial complex.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy condemned the attacks as an “inhuman” assault, highlighting the devastating impact on civilians. In the Kharkiv region, half a million people were left without heating in freezing temperatures, while blackouts affected Kyiv and other areas.

US President Joe Biden also condemned the “outrageous” attack, announcing that he had directed the US Defense Department to expedite a new wave of military aid to Kyiv.

The Rise of Alabuga: Secretive Factory Expansion 

Russia has dramatically escalated its drone attacks over the past six months, with strikes rising from around 400 in May to over 2,400 in November, according to a CNN report. In December alone, at least 1,700 drone strikes have been recorded.

Driving this escalation is the rapid expansion of a clandestine drone manufacturing facility located in the Alabuga Special Economic Zone in Russia’s southern Tatarstan region, about 600 miles east of Moscow.

Originally established in 2006 to attract Western businesses through tax incentives, the Alabuga zone saw an exodus of major businesses after the Ukraine war. Since then, some parts of the site have transitioned to military production. The facility’s growth has been remarkable.

Following the February 2022 invasion, Russia initially imported Iranian-made Shahed drones but soon secured a US$1.75 billion deal to produce them domestically.

Alabuga has since become the primary production hub for the Shahed-136, known in Russia as Geran-2, with an agreement to manufacture 6,000 units by September 2025—a target it appears to have already met.

In 2023, the factory produced 2,738 Shahed drones and more than doubled that figure in 2024, manufacturing 5,760 units between January and September, according to Ukrainian defense intelligence sources.

The facility has ramped up production of attack and surveillance drones based on Iranian designs, using Chinese components and employing a low-skilled workforce that includes Russian teenagers and African women, the report revealed.

In June 2023, Satellite imagery released by the US National Security Council revealed the construction of two additional buildings and heightened security measures at the site, further underscoring the factory’s expanded role in Russia’s offensive.

Russia’s ‘Decoy’ Drone Strategy

In a tactical shift, the factory has begun mass-producing thousands of “decoy” drones, known as “Gerbera,” designed to overwhelm and exhaust Ukrainian air defenses.

Constructed from plywood and foam, these decoys mimic the distinctive triangular shape of the Shahed drones, making them difficult to distinguish from actual threats, even on the radar.

While Ukrainian air defenses have proven effective against most Shaheds, Russia’s use of Gerbera drones creates a swarm of false targets, forcing defenders to expend valuable resources.

Russia plans to produce approximately 10,000 Gerbera drones by the end of 2024, nearly double the projected number of Shaheds. The cost advantage plays a critical role in this strategy, as a single Gerbera is estimated to be 10 times cheaper to produce than a Shahed, according to CNN analysis.

The China Connection

As the Alabuga drone factory ramps up production, China appears to be playing a key role in mitigating sanctions-related supply chain challenges.

Between September 2023 and June 2024, 34 Chinese companies reportedly partnered with Alabuga, signing contracts worth approximately 700 million yuan (over 8 billion rubles or US$96 million), according to the report.

Chinese-made electronics found in Russian drones are no secret, though Beijing maintains that it has not supplied lethal weapons to any party involved in the Ukraine war.

Washington, however, has repeatedly accused China of aiding Russia’s war effort by supplying dual-use goods and components that can be used in weapon manufacturing—claims Beijing denies. The US National Security Council has stated that while China is not directly providing lethal aid, it is selling critical components, including those for drones.

In response, the United States has already imposed sanctions on two China-based drone suppliers and their Russian collaborators. Xiamen Limbach Aircraft Engine Co., based in Xiamen, was accused of producing drone engines for Russia’s Garpiya series. Another firm, Redlepus Vector Industry Shenzhen Co., was implicated in collaborating with a Russian defense company to facilitate drone shipments.

The US Treasury Department stated that these Chinese companies had worked closely with Russian defense firms in producing Moscow’s long-range Garpiya series unmanned aerial vehicles.

China’s involvement at Alabuga is set to expand further. A new transport hub, the “Deng Xiaoping Logistics Complex,” named after China’s former leader, is under construction just miles from the site. According to a promotional video, the complex will feature a direct rail link between Russia and China, with the capacity to handle up to 100,000 containers annually.

Escalating Impact

The impact of Russia’s expanded drone production capability is clear in the significant rise in drone attacks on Ukraine. This escalation, coupled with the strategic use of decoy drones and the growing Russia-China industrial partnership, marks a troubling shift in the conflict’s intensity and scope.

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