The new year brings rather more hope to President Zelensky than Vladimir Putin, I judge. The latter may have been a brilliant spy but is being exposed as a dreadful military commander. He has forgotten, or more likely is unaware of, the principles of warfare, most especially the one that says reinforce success not failure. With his three-week special military operation now approaching its fourth year, it seems most likely that Zelensky will still be in power this time next year and Putin’s best hope may be a villa in North Korea or breaking rocks in the Urals. Russian history does not paint a rosy picture for failed dictators.

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The stakes are rising on both sides of the conflict. Putin has been humiliated in Syria and humiliated in Moscow with the assassination of his key general and ally, Kirillov, on his front doorstep. In his annual Christmas question and answer session on National and International TV, he fibbed through his teeth, trying to appear swan-like above the water, but everyone knows he’s peddling frantically below it.

Putin claimed that he would retake Russia’s sacred land in Kursk by Christmas, spectacularly taken by Ukrainian forces last summer; but this is looking like another psychological blow to his dictatorship as a new Ukraine offensive pushes eastwards. Kursk may well be the beginning of the end for Putin in 2025, as it was for Hitler in 1943.

It looks like Ukraine forces have given Russian forces in Kursk a real hammering over the last few days and it’s possible the Russian 801 Marine Brigade has been so badly hit that it has now withdrawn from the Kursk Salient. According to Ukraine estimates, hundreds of North Koreans sent to bolster the brigade have been lost. Ukraine has reported striking and destroying a significant Russian command and control centre in the Kursk region. The Russian front in Kursk is looking very shaky and Ukraine, rather than just hold on, could make gains. In desperation, Putin is sending one of his most trusted generals to the region in an attempt to rescue the situation. Russia seems to have plenty of expendable generals, but not the military hardware to thwart this latest Ukrainian advance.

This is giving Kyiv great hope. Putin may well be in survival mode after events in Syria, the elimination of his right-hand man, General Kirillov, and the decision by Ukraine to close off the last route allowing Russia to sell gas to Europe through its territory.

Allied to this, he knows Trump is unlikely to do him any favours come January 20, with the “mood” music coming out of the Trump Camp, that Putin is going to have to accept a deal which probably favours Ukraine or be prepared for Trump to go full on behind Zelensky.

This should be another psychological fillip for Ukraine and another mental blow for Putin. Seeing him floundering around in his “chat” with the nation recently, you can judge he is under real pressure, and with the knowledge that the tyrant Assad has just crashed from his perch and is cowering under Putin’s coat tails, must be a very disarming experience.

Putin knows failed Russian dictators rarely collect their “pensions” and seems to be charting a way out. His final gambit to save Kursk is putting him into “check” if not “checkmate”?

This is positive, but it is essential that the West and Nato European countries keep up the pressure and don’t give him anyway out. Things are looking brighter for Ukraine if we hold our nerve.

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