As he prepares to take office, President-elect Donald Trump says he hope to meet with Russia’s Vladimir Putin “very quickly” in pursuit of a speedy end to the war in Ukraine. Trump has suggested he believes Putin will be open to compromise, as the Russian president surely cannot be “too thrilled about the way [the war has] gone.”

While the Kremlin has expressed readiness to talk, the incoming administration must not be fooled. Moscow views these potential negotiations as a way to achieve its longstanding objective of subjugating Ukraine, not to reach a genuine compromise. The Kremlin seeks to use American eagerness for peace to help it achieve that objective. If this ploy works, it will succeed not so much because of Putin’s ability to deceive us but because we deceived ourselves.

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Even as Moscow says it desires peace, the Kremlin continues to make maximalist demands. In recent months, Putin has repeatedly insisted that Ukraine must cede territory and abandon all hope of joining NATO. The Russian leader asserts that any deal should be based on a draft agreement negotiated in Istanbul in the spring of 2022, which fell apart after Russian forces withdrew from Kyiv’s outskirts, allowing the world to discover the atrocities the Russians had inflicted upon Ukrainian civilians there. Such a deal would circumscribe Ukrainian sovereignty, including by restricting the size of its military.

In short, the Kremlin seeks to lock in its own battlefield gains while leaving Ukraine vulnerable to future Russian aggression. Russia would then be free to bully its smaller neighbour, including in a potential follow-up war.

Putin’s goal of dominating Ukraine isn’t going to change. He sees it as fundamental to Russia’s place in the world and to his own legacy as a modern-day tsar. In order to anticipate Putin’s next steps, Washington must understand how he thinks.

Whereas American diplomats are reminded daily of the benefits of trade and cooperation, Putin — trained as a KGB operative — thinks in zero-sum terms. There’s an old Russian joke that illustrates this mindset perfectly: A peasant lives between two houses that each have a cow, and he complains to God that he doesn’t have his own. When God offers to provide him with one, the peasant replies, “No, I’d prefer that you just kill my neighbours’ cows.”

Furthermore, whereas Americans think in four-year election cycles, Putin has the luxury of envisioning a longer horizon – the centuries required to actualise his imperial ambitions.  He has said that the fall of the Soviet empire “was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century,” and therefore his primary goal is to restore Russia’s power, undermine NATO, and replace the American-led world order with a multipolar one.

The Kremlin does not believe that Trump’s ascension to power will lead to any radical change in Washington’s supposed hostility toward Russia. However, Moscow understands that Trump wants to be perceived as a “deal maker” who managed to end a conflict his predecessor failed to resolve.

Russia seeks to exploit this desire to “close the deal” to entice Washington into accepting Russia’s supposed right to suzerainty over Ukraine and pressuring Kyiv into one-sided concessions. The Kremlin has already some success in getting Trump to accept its framing of the conflict as catalysed by NATO’s expansion attempts rather than Russia’s. Sergey Lavrov, for example, praised Trump this month for a comment sympathising with Russia’s opposition to having NATO “right on their doorstep.”

In the meantime, Putin is looking to strengthen his leverage by grinding forward on the battlefield, where he believes his forces currently have the upper hand. The Kremlin likely intends to press its advantage until Kyiv capitulates or Russia simply has no option but to pause the fighting. Even then, any ceasefire may just be an interlude before another war.

The incoming American president would be wise to focus on steps to increase U.S. and Ukrainian leverage. He should impose more sanctions on Russia and provide Ukraine with more weapons. Trump must not fall for Moscow’s deceptions. No dialogue, vodka, or “peace through trade” will alter Putin’s ambitions.

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