When Mexico's president offered to send 10,000 troops to the U.S. border, it was an easy response to President Donald Trump's tariff threats.

Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo has more than 280,000 military troops at her disposal, deployed around Mexico handling matters of public security, including drug trafficking and illegal migration – Trump's two big asks.

When Trump ordered a 25% tariff to take effect Tuesday if Mexico didn't do something, Sheinbaum Pardo, a climate scientist, kept "a cool head," she said – a personal mantra. She had her predecessor's playbook, too: Sending in the National Guard had worked with Trump before.

Already, more than 32,000 National Guard troops were deployed in immigration enforcement at Mexico's northern and southern borders. Sheinbaum Pardo made an offer: to shift 3.5% of her troops to the northern border to do essentially what they were already doing.

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More than 9,000 Army and National Guard troops were stationed at the northern border during the first half of last year, said Samuel Storr, a researcher with the Iberoamericana University's Citizen Security Program in Mexico City, which obtained deployment statistics through information requests.

The National Guard's "mission is fluid," Storr said. "It gives the government the leeway to make these big announcements. It serves for a performative foreign policy."

Mexican troops arrive at the U.S. border

By Tuesday afternoon, the Mexican government confirmed more than 7,000 troops were en route north, redeployed from southern and central states to 14 northern border cities from Tijuana on the west coast to Matamoros in the east.

The two countries had reached a similar deal in 2019, after Trump threatened tariffs amid rising illegal migration and Sheinbaum Pardo's predecessor Andrés Manuel López Obrador responded by sending the then-newly formed National Guard to the border.

"It’s a pattern of issuing a threat and claiming a victory but it’s unclear if anything changes," said Stephanie Brewer, director for Mexico at the Washington Office on Latin America, a left-leaning think tank in Washington, D.C.

The risk, she said, is that pulling troops to demonstrate a show of force at the U.S. border might have the opposite effect of Trump's stated goal.

"Does it mean taking 10,000 troops potentially deployed elsewhere combatting the flow of illicit drugs or migration?" Brewer said.

Perhaps, but Mexico's National Guard may be less valuable to internal missions, because it is less effective than other military branches at enforcement activities, Storr said. His research has found that National Guard troops detain fewer people, interdict fewer weapons and seize fewer drugs than other Mexican enforcement agencies.

At least 120 National Guard soldiers arrived Tuesday in Ciudad Juárez, across the Rio Grande river from El Paso, Texas.

"We're starting today," said Jose Luis Santo, coordinator of the National Guard battalion stationed there. "We're here to reinforce the northern border with the goal of stopping the drug trafficking from Mexico to the United States, principally fentanyl. This is the mission."

Ongoing crackdown on migration, fentanyl

The pause on tariffs is scheduled to last 30 days, and high-level representatives of the U.S. and Mexican governments are working to hammer out a lasting deal that meets Trump's goals of reducing illegal migration at the southern border and reducing the flow of fentanyl.

Mexico, the United States' largest trading partner, is especially concerned with preserving its free-trade relationship with its northern neighbor, which is essential to its economy.

Trump, ever the businessman, watched global stock markets nosedive Monday as tariffs loomed. Economists worry tariffs will hit inflation-weary Americans in the pocketbook. They work like a tax that is passed on to consumers. The price of Mexican products from avocados and strawberries, to cars and appliances, could jump.

Monday's announcement "doesn’t signal any clear change – certainly not any clear improvement – and it comes at a time when Mexico has been engaged in a long-term crackdown," Brewer said.

The reality is that for more than a year, at the behest of the Biden administration, Mexico has been cracking down on migration routes north, making it difficult or impossible for many migrants to get near the U.S. border.

Mexico's president says her government has also been working aggressively to interrupt the drug trade. In a lengthy post on X before the agreement with Trump, Sheinbaum Pardo said her administration has seized more than 40 tons of drugs, including 20 million doses of fentanyl, since she took office in October.

Drug seizures by U.S. Customs and Border Protection at the southern border rose in fiscal 2024 to 275,000 pounds, up 14% from 241,000 pounds the prior year, although fentanyl seizures declined 21% over the same period.

Fentanyl is most often trafficked over the U.S.-Mexico border by U.S. citizen drivers, according to a review of CBP news releases on drug seizures.

The latest National Guard deployment "will reinforce the troops already deployed at the border, with the goal of stopping the flow of fentanyl, other drugs and illegal immigration to the United States," Mexico's government said in a statement Tuesday.

Troops will also work to intercept weapons trafficked illegally from the United States into Mexico, the government said.

Illegal migration down at the border

Mexico's show of force at the northern border comes at a time when migration is at a low point.

On the U.S. side, Border Patrol's El Paso Sector covering West Texas and New Mexico is recording dozens – not thousands – of migrant encounters every day. On Monday, the agency recorded 99 encounters, down from a peak two years ago around 2,700 per day, according to the city's migrant "situational awareness" dashboard.

On the Mexican side, this industrial border city has been the crossing point for tens of thousands of migrants in recent years, including asylum-seekers and unaccompanied minors, as well as migrants aiming to evade U.S. border authorities with the help of a smuggler.

Today, migrant shelters here are at roughly 35% of their capacity, said Juan Fierro, director of El Buen Samaritano shelter and a spokesman for the local shelter network. Mexico's crackdown has made it exceedingly difficult for migrants to reach the northern border.

Most of the people waiting in shelters are asylum-seekers who spent months waiting to cross legally only to see their CBP One appointments canceled on Trump's inauguration day, Fierro said. His shelter is hosting about 60 people from Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador and Mexico, he said.

Some are waiting to see if Trump will offer a new legal pathway to cross; others are evaluating whether they'll cross with a smuggler, he said.

But few have lost hope.

"It gets harder," he said, "but they're always looking for a way to cross. The desire to be in the United States is much greater than the risks."

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