I saw at least four different videos on this and all of them have the same arguments and same format, and it goes like this.

China’s GDP growth looks impressive, but is it real, or is the C C P lying? We looked at the lights from satellite images and they aren’t as bright as those from free countries, so oh we think the C C P is lying. Even a high ranking C C P official said GDP data is man-made. How does the C C P lie? You see they build a bunch of useless real estates and infrastructure to meet GDP target which they report themselves without checks and balances, unlike free countries. Ghost cities, ghost cities, ghost cities. Building one road / bridge / airport is useful, but because GDP growth is the target, local C C P official might just build another useless one just for the hell of it. Let’s look back at the glowing lights. Based on the intensity of of the lights we estimate the Chinese economy to be actually 60% smaller than what they claim and only about a fraction the size of the US’ economy.

Let’s just do a quick gut check.

The link below shows the composition of China’s GDP by industry. Real Estate accounts for 6.1%. How can you fake enough data with ghost cities to account for 60% of GDP when the whole industry is only 6.1%?

Another dimension you can gut check with is global trade. China has surpassed the US as the top trade partner for the majority of the countries in the world. While it doesn’t account for everything related to GDP, it’s a better proxy than shiny lights. Is it more likely that a country less than half the economic size of the US out trades the US or that free countries should be a little more prudent with how often they leave on the lights?