This week leaders and officials from across the world will gather in Munich for the Annual Security Conference, the pre-eminent gathering for securocrats and politicians. It’s a place for leaders to set out their positions and draw red lines, and has hosted both Russian President Vladimir Putin and a bevy of US Vice-Presidents in the past.

Munich’s motto is “peace through dialogue”, but it has proven itself in recent years to also be a forceful bastion of European resistance against Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. What a shame, then, that this year’s gathering seems set to mirror the disastrous conference of 1938 where the Continent stood blind in the face of Hitler’s duplicity. The stench of appeasement is once again returning to Munich.

JD Vance will soon set out the foundations of a Ukraine peace deal that seems to have been crafted over the head of America’s ostensible ally President Zelensky. The Trump administration, presuming itself to be the biggest donor (actually Europe is) feels it can dictate terms out of thin air, confident that nobody will stop it from fawning over Putin and his “security” demands. With the question of Nato accession now firmly off the table, there is no guarantee that Putin will not return to wrest yet more territory from Ukraine.

Ukraine will have no reason to trust the West again, having already been betrayed by us once before. We promised to guarantee the Budapest Memorandum in 1990, where Ukraine’s safety was supposed to be guaranteed in exchange for the surrender of their nuclear weapons. We abandoned that pledge in 2014, when Putin stole Crimea and Donetsk.

The Russian leader is not one for keeping his promises. As the new US Defence Secretary once said, to Russia a ceasefire is just another opportunity to reload. Any concerns of this nature clearly disappeared once Hegseth got a taste of Maga-backed power, but that doesn’t make his former statement any less true. The fundamental misjudgement of Trump is his view that China is the only real threat to American supremacy. In truth, Russia poses a similar if not greater threat, having actually proven its willingness to engage in a hot war to secure its interests. America may soon feel the dictator breathing down its neck as he looks to Alaska and the Arctic territories. And the arena of trade is vulnerable, too, with the Kremlin’s disregard for international treaties directly threatening US commercial interests.

After Chamberlain returned to Britain in 1938 having signed an agreement with Adolf Hitler, he proclaimed “peace for our time”. Winston Churchill then rebutted that “You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour and you will have war.” The same fate awaits the West, whether in the Taiwan strait, Iran, or elsewhere in Europe, if it fails to stand strong now. And like 87 years ago it will have its roots in Munich.

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