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Trump risks pushing Europe into China’s arms-

In recent years, the European Union and Taiwan have quietly, but meaningfully, deepened their ties, especially in trade and technology.

The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated this shift, as European policymakers looked for ways to reduce overreliance on China. Taiwan, with its cutting-edge semiconductor industry and democratic governance, stood out as a natural partner.

But economics wasn’t the only driver. Growing unease over China’s geopolitical assertiveness, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, has led European leaders to reassess their strategic posture. Security concerns, coupled with the push for more resilient supply chains, brought Taiwan into sharper focus in EU foreign policy circles.

This progress, however, could be undone — not by Beijing, but by Washington.

President Trump’s reemergence on the international stage has already caused unease among America’s allies. His first term was marked by unpredictable trade policies and open skepticism toward longstanding alliances. By imposing tariffs on both rivals and partners and frequently shifting course, the Trump administration often left Europe scrambling to adapt.

The Biden administration, in contrast, worked to rebuild trust and promote policy alignment, particularly on China and Taiwan, after years of friction. That effort took on new urgency following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which reminded Europe of the need for solidarity among democracies.

But cracks are beginning to reappear. Within months of Trump’s return to power, signals of divergence have emerged, including in how Europe approaches China.

This growing rift matters. As Beijing steps up military pressure on Taiwan, the island doesn’t just need U.S. support — it needs a broad coalition of democratic partners willing to push back through coordinated, credible action. Trade ties, diplomatic engagement, and participation in multilateral forums all bolster Taiwan’s international standing.

If Europe drifts from Washington, or vice versa, Taiwan could find itself increasingly isolated. Ironically, a U.S. administration that seeks to confront China might end up making that harder by alienating the very allies it needs to succeed.


There’s already some evidence of this shift. In recent months, several European leaders have softened their rhetoric on China, emphasizing engagement over confrontation.

Some of that may be driven by economic concerns, but a lot of it has to do with trust — or the lack of it. If European capitals view Washington as unreliable or transactional, they may see more value in hedging their bets with Beijing.

Of course, the EU is hardly unified. While countries like Lithuania have taken bold stances in support of Taiwan, others — Germany and Italy, for instance — have shown more caution and in some cases, such as Hungary, even direct support for China.

A divided Europe, combined with a less dependable United States, would make for a dangerous cocktail in an already volatile global climate.

Trump’s foreign policy team may recognize China as a strategic threat, but they haven’t always understood the value of alliances. Washington can’t confront Beijing alone. Without European backing, U.S. efforts lose legitimacy, scale, and diplomatic reach.


Meanwhile, China is watching closely. Beijing has already made inroads by presenting itself as a stable alternative to Western unpredictability — especially in Africa, Latin America and the Pacific. If America once again turns inward or lashes out at its allies, Europe may have little choice but to pursue a more pragmatic, less principled relationship with Beijing.

Walking away from the groundwork laid by the Biden administration — like the Australia-United Kingdom-U.S. partnership, AUKUS, the U.S.-Indo-Pacific “Quad” cooperative and renewed EU-U.S. strategic talks — would be a costly error. Short-term political gains in Washington shouldn’t come at the expense of long-term global leadership.

The bottom line is simple: If the U.S. is serious about deterring Chinese aggression and defending Taiwan, it needs Europe. Not just as a symbolic partner, but as a committed one.

Undermining the transatlantic alliance isn’t just bad diplomacy. It’s a gift to Beijing — and a gamble Taiwan may not be able to afford.

By Jo Ikeji-Uju
https://afriprime.net/pages/Anything

BRICS members economic outlook and poverty within each country and their loan payback situations.

As of April 2025, the BRICS nations—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—face varied economic landscapes, poverty challenges, and debt situations.
Here's an overview:​

Brazil-
Economic Outlook: Brazil's economy is projected to grow modestly in 2025, supported by agricultural exports and domestic consumption. However, global trade tensions and commodity price volatility pose risks.​

Poverty: The poverty rate, based on US$6.85/day (PPP), decreased from 28.4% in 2021 to 24.3% in 2022, aided by social programs like Bolsa Família. Further reductions are anticipated with continued economic growth .​

Debt Situation: Brazil's public debt remains high, necessitating fiscal discipline. Efforts are ongoing to balance social spending with debt management.​

Russia-
Economic Outlook: Russia's economy faces challenges due to international sanctions and fluctuating energy prices. Diversification efforts are underway to reduce reliance on energy exports.​

Poverty: While official statistics are limited, economic pressures have likely impacted poverty levels, especially in rural areas.​

Debt Situation: Russia maintains a relatively low public debt-to-GDP ratio, around 21%, providing some fiscal flexibility .​
BRICS Journal of Economics

India-
Economic Outlook: India is expected to grow at a robust pace, driven by domestic consumption and digital infrastructure expansion. However, high borrowing costs may constrain fiscal stimulus efforts .​

Poverty: India has made significant strides in poverty reduction, though disparities persist. Continued focus on inclusive growth is essential .​
ORF Online

Debt Situation: India's public debt is substantial, limiting the scope for aggressive fiscal interventions. Managing debt sustainability remains a priority.​

China-
Economic Outlook: China's GDP grew by 5.4% in Q1 2025, bolstered by strong exports ahead of increased U.S. tariffs. However, domestic challenges like a property sector slump and deflationary pressures are concerns .​

Poverty: China has significantly reduced extreme poverty, though income inequality and rural-urban disparities remain areas of focus.​

Debt Situation: Rising public debt, particularly at local government levels, poses risks. Authorities are balancing stimulus measures with debt containment efforts.​

South Africa-
Economic Outlook: South Africa's growth is modest, hindered by energy supply issues and structural constraints. Reforms are needed to boost investor confidence and economic performance.​

Poverty: High unemployment and inequality contribute to persistent poverty levels. Social assistance programs are critical for vulnerable populations.​

Debt Situation: Public debt levels are elevated, limiting fiscal space. Efforts to stabilize debt and implement structural reforms are ongoing.​

Note: The BRICS bloc continues to explore initiatives like de-dollarization and enhanced financial cooperation to strengthen economic resilience and reduce dependency on traditional financial systems .​

Brazil-
Industrial Expansion: Brazilian industrialists are actively seeking opportunities within BRICS countries, notably India, to enhance trade and mutual investments. This initiative aims to capitalize on India's projected economic growth and foster greater industrial collaboration. ​
Agência Brasil

Agricultural Collaboration: At the 2025 BRICS+ Agriculture Investment and Trade Summit, Brazil and South Africa initiated cooperation in sugar production technology and rural farming systems. This partnership is expected to empower smallholder farmers and women-led cooperatives, potentially increasing employment in the agricultural sector. ​
bricswomen.com

Russia-
Economic Outlook: Russia is focusing on strengthening ties within the BRICS alliance to drive economic growth, emphasizing the bloc's role in global economic development. ​
Reuters

Employment Initiatives: While specific employment programs are not detailed, Russia's emphasis on BRICS cooperation suggests potential job creation through joint projects and investments within the alliance.​
Latest news & breaking headlines

India-
Defense Manufacturing: India is expanding its defense exports, offering affordable arms to countries traditionally reliant on Russian weaponry. This strategy not only boosts India's defense sector but also aims to create employment opportunities within the manufacturing industry. ​

Digital Economy: India continues to invest in its digital economy, focusing on software development, e-commerce, and fintech. These sectors are significant contributors to employment, particularly among the youth. ​
pharmsource.org

China-
Technological Advancements: China is investing in emerging technologies such as 5G, artificial intelligence, and smart manufacturing. These investments are part of the country's strategy to embrace the New Industrial Revolution, which is expected to generate new employment opportunities in high-tech industries. ​
en.ndrc.gov.cn

Infrastructure Development: Through initiatives like the Digital Silk Road, China is enhancing its technological infrastructure, which supports job creation in construction, engineering, and related sectors. ​
pharmsource.org

South Africa-
Investment Mobilization: South Africa plans to mobilize approximately $109.4 billion in new investments from 2023 to 2028. These investments are directed towards industrial modernization, human capital expansion, and infrastructure development, all of which are expected to create employment opportunities. ​
TV BRICS

BRICS Inward Investment Missions: The country is hosting BRICS Inward Buying and Investment Missions to attract foreign investment and promote economic collaboration. These missions focus on sectors like manufacturing, agro-processing, pharmaceuticals, and automotive, aiming to stimulate job creation and economic growth. ​

Overall, BRICS nations are leveraging intra-bloc cooperation and strategic investments to bolster local industries and employment. These efforts are integral to their broader economic development goals and aim to enhance their positions in the global economy.

The BRICS countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa—have increasingly turned to intra-BRICS financial mechanisms, particularly the New Development Bank (NDB), to fund development projects and reduce reliance on Western financial institutions like the IMF or World Bank.

Here’s a breakdown of the benefits of BRICS loans and how capable each country is of repaying them:

Benefits of BRICS Loans (especially via the New Development Bank):-
Lower Conditionality-
Unlike IMF or World Bank loans, BRICS loans often come with fewer political and economic reform conditions, allowing for more autonomy in how funds are used.

Local Currency Lending-
The NDB promotes lending in local currencies to reduce exchange rate risk and avoid dollar dependency, supporting national financial stability.

Focus on Infrastructure & Development-
Loans are often directed at infrastructure, green energy, transport, and water projects—investments that directly stimulate economic activity and job creation.

Faster Disbursement-
The NDB is often more agile in project approvals and disbursement compared to traditional institutions.

Multipolar Finance Vision-
BRICS lending supports a shift toward a more multipolar global economic order, with South-South cooperation at its core.

Loan Repayment Capability by Country:-
Brazil-
Repayment Capacity: Moderate

Brazil has a high public debt ratio (~74% of GDP), but solid export revenues (soy, iron ore, oil) and large FX reserves support repayment capacity. Political and fiscal reforms are crucial to sustaining debt servicing ability.

Russia-
Repayment Capacity: Strong

Despite sanctions, Russia has low public debt (~21% of GDP) and strong energy export income. It has been pivoting toward BRICS and Asia for trade and finance, which buffers its repayment strength.

India-
Repayment Capacity: Strong

India maintains a robust GDP growth trajectory (projected ~6–7% in 2025) and a growing tax base. Its high debt (~83% of GDP) is offset by its large economy and steady investor confidence. Repayment of multilateral loans remains on track.

China-
Repayment Capacity: Very Strong

With the world’s second-largest economy and over $3 trillion in foreign reserves, China can easily service debts. Although it has internal financial risks (e.g., local government debt), its repayment capacity on international loans is solid.

South Africa-
Repayment Capacity: Weak to Moderate

South Africa faces high public debt (~72% of GDP), sluggish growth, and unemployment over 30%. However, access to BRICS financing offers alternatives to austerity-heavy Western loans. Its capacity to repay depends on structural reforms and commodity prices.

Conclusion
BRICS loans offer flexible, development-focused financing with fewer strings attached. This helps member countries invest in long-term infrastructure without triggering immediate austerity. However, repayment capacity varies—China and India are best positioned, while South Africa and Brazil must manage debt carefully. Russia remains unique due to sanctions but retains financial strength from energy exports.

How The World Works-
The effects of bad decisions can creep up on you. They might not show up for several years, but they will show up. You won’t pay a heavy price for all bad decisions, but you will for some.

The better you understand how the world works (science, economics, human psychology, etc.), the more equipped you’ll be to make wise decisions. High IQ and college degrees aren’t required, but the willingness to keep learning the relevant subjects is vital.

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